Emailing MMT with Congressman Joe Donnelly
Mr. Donnelly,
Thanks for the reply. Everything you say is pragmatic. As such, I offer you additional insight into the situation. In my opinion, there is perceived to be a problem where no such problem exists.
It must be terrible to face such opposition that derives their stance before the debates even begin! How absolutely dreadful. My advice is as follows, and is a hard road and likely is not very popular. There is presently a huge movement to hate on the rich. Fact is, the rich pay far more taxes than the poor and there are lots of entitlement payments. Also note that I am OK with the tax code and also believe that taxes could be cut on the middle class by 50% (anyone who makes less than $50K) — these would be met with enormous enthusiasm.
Subsidies exist for a reason, that reason being that people have found a way to manipulate the system to their advantage via lobbying.
If I was in your shoes, I would strike out to find and identify all of those who oppose me and challenge everyone individually to a debate on live television to express how they could choose their position before the debate or even glossing over the document. If they don’t show, it would not make you look foolish to sit on live television for a minute and briefly express your concern, name them by name, and inquire to the voting public why they voted for this candidate who clearly is more focused on gaming the system than defending the rights of americans.
Look, for the most part, things work enormously well over at congress. I prefer that most of the time people can’t decide on anything. Usually when decisions are made, a lot of porkbarrel legislation is rolled in. I don’t plan on running in the interim, but if I do decide to run, I would shoot from the hip and lead with no regrets decisions. I would not hide behind untruths and would admit my faults.
Keep doing your best. You’re doing a pretty damn good job, sir. Shipping jobs overseas is now a function of the largest currency war of our lifetimes, of which I am an active participant and am profiting enormously. China cheats the system and so does Germany. The USA, by running a deficit is keeping things reasonably fair. I expect us to cheat for as long as everyone else cheats.
Fraud is a necessary part of the system these days, it’s either that or we all work 75% of what we do today and have more vacations. Since it is the opinion of everyone in charge that we need to work the hell out of everyone, less they have time to think about things and actually vote on important issues, might as well keep running that deficit.
Cheers!
Do Not Lose,
CEO ARM Holdings LLC
None of the above is intended as investment advice. I can’t guarantee the information I gathered is from an accurate source. I may buy or sell any stock or security without prior notice.
Disclaimer: http://www.glenbradford.com/disclaimer.php
From: Congressman Joe Donnelly [mailto:Joe.Donnelly]
Sent: Thursday, January 26, 2012 2:15 PM
To: globalspeculation
Subject: Responding to your message
January 26, 2012
Dear Mr. Bradford,
Thank you for taking the time to contact me about the debt limit. I value your views, and your input helps me to better represent the people of Indiana’s Second District in Congress.
The debt limit debate this past year was contentious and unnecessarily suspenseful primarily because too many people in Washington had drawn lines in the sand before the debate even began. The reality is that compromise and bipartisanship are always going to be required when the issue is as important as the fiscal future of our country. With so many people locked into positions at the outset, it was very difficult for Congress to arrive at a workable solution to the problem.
We did, however, finally arrive at a fiscally responsible plan that drew support from both parties. The plan raised the debt ceiling, but also cut spending by an amount greater than the authorized increase in debt. The bill will reduce future government spending by almost $1 trillion over the next ten years by placing strict spending caps on future budgets. Those cuts will be achieved without affecting Social Security recipients, Medicare beneficiaries, veterans, or those on Medicaid.
This legislation is far from perfect. I would have preferred that any increase in the debt limit be accompanied by common-sense solutions such as closing tax loopholes for companies that ship jobs overseas and ending tax breaks for big oil companies. Yet the possibility of defaulting on our nation’s obligations, potentially causing catastrophic harm to our already fragile economy, was not an option for me.
You sent me to Congress to seek bipartisan solutions to bipartisan problems. I remain dedicated to working with my colleagues on both sides of the aisle to safeguard America’s fiscal future.
Thank you again for contacting me about this important issue. Please do not hesitate to write, call or email me again if I can ever be of assistance. Also, if you would like to receive regular updates on my actions on your behalf in Congress, sign up for my e-newsletter, The Donnelly Dispatch, at http://donnelly.house.gov/contact/email-updates.shtml.
Sincerely,
Joe Donnelly
Member of Congress
My Personal Evolution: The Investor dies; Trader is Born
Yeah, pretty much that. I’ve come to the conclusion that buying and holding doesn’t really make all that much sense. The fastest way to appreciate your capital is to:
1. Identify mispricings in the market with catalysts that will return the security to it’s range of intrinsic valuation.
2. Open a position in the security and prepare for the position to move against you (set cash aside for future movements against you)
3. Make a market in the security, relative to its volatility, difference between price and intrinsic valuation, and personal risk tolerance.
4. Buy and sell profitably on a daily basis as you lower your cost basis for the position as well as taking some off the table when things go in your favor and putting up to a certain amount back on the table when things go against you.
5. Hello profits! Wow! There is so much money out there in trading, I had no idea.
I cannot wait to see this system build up in size. Pick your limits and constraints and try to target low price, high volatility stocks that you think are undervalued. dividends help even more! Dividends add to the volatility as your algo’s tend to buy after the dividend kicks off and the stop drops proportionally. over time it works its way out and it’s just more free money
So there you have it. instead of looking to own businesses, now my objective is to treat business ownership like a business. Trading is a business that throws off daily estimatable cash flows given my risk levels in the market (dollars invested). over time, trading is actually less risky than buying and holding and it actually has more upside in my opinion if you do it right.
The better you get, the more money you’ll have and the more able you are to trade and set additional parameters that add market liquidity and line your pockets with various currencies.
At present, I am trading in London, Canada, and USA.
This is all part of my minimization of future regrets philosophy.
$LEE
Lee Enterprises is pretty much doing exactly what I figured they would be doing. They’re worth $3+
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=71253037
http://lee.net/newsreleases/pdf/Lee%20NR%20Refinancing%20012312.pdf
They made 38 cents this last quarter for a stock trading at $1.10. Not bad?
http://lee.net/newsreleases/pdf/LEE%20Q1%202012%20Earnings%20011712.pdf
http://lee.net/newsreleases/pdf/Letter%20012312.pdf
http://seekingalpha.com/article/312778-lee-enterprises-should-top-2-within-180-days
That’s all for now,
Glen Bradford
PS, if you miss the first moves, it’s not that big of a deal, I admit that most of the time you can’t be 100% in the company that is moving that day. That’s why I diversify across undervalued companies and then rebalance according to my expectations every now and again. Right now, Lee has some serious room to run but I am scale trading all the way up, squeezing those pennies and nickels out of the volatility.
I am presently looking to figure out how to trade YELL on the london exchange because by volatility alone I believe 2% a day can be extracted from the stock, so that is exciting.
Glen
$YLO Yellow Media Resources
Debt Update 2: http://www.glenbradford.com/files/Stocks/Copy%20of%20YLO%20debtupdated-2.xls
Analyst Report: http://www.glenbradford.com/files/Stocks/YLO111411.pdf
Debt Update: http://www.glenbradford.com/files/Stocks/YLO%20debt-update.xls
Debt: http://www.glenbradford.com/files/Stocks/YLO%20debt.xls
Top line estimates: http://www.glenbradford.com/files/Stocks/YLO%20121211.xlsx
Short Squeeze Analysis: http://www.glenbradford.com/files/Stocks/YLOSqueeze.xlsx
Lastly, if you are capable of this depth of research and want to be included in conversations with others of similar depth, email me.
http://www.stockhouse.com/Bullboards/MessageDetail.aspx?p=0&m=30550401&l=0&r=0&s=YLO&t=LIST
http://www.stockhouse.com/Bullboards/MessageDetail.aspx?p=0&m=30550500&l=0&r=0&s=YLO&t=LIST
Yellow Media $YLO US Exchange short analysis
http://www.glenbradford.com/files/Stocks/YLOSqueeze.xlsx
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=YLO.TO&a=09&b=9&c=2009&d=00&e=11&f=2012&g=m
http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/YLWPF/short-sales
check it out.. looks like the shorts made a killing so far but failed to cover at the bottom… that is something that they will likely regret as they are short 50 million shares of a company priced at $100M that I think should have a price of around $1000M.
with 550 million shares out there, 50 million is around 10%.
they could be arbitraging, short the commons and long the preferreds but i dont think that this is the case.
Yellow media is set for a squeeze… wow.
$YLO Yellow Media 10-bagger from $0.18 Yellow Media Inc – 10-bagger – 1000%+ return for those who buy now
First Off:
Why would you listen to me? I’ve done it before. Note that when I wrote that article I had titled it: “There is no risk with Conseco” but SeekingAlpha retitled it. What makes this a great opportunity is that no one will publish my thoughts on this company. Also note that I spent the last 2 hours arguing with my parents over why this company is worth owning and they think I’m insane for suggesting that this is a great value. No one wants to look at this company from the long side. PERFECT!
Set the stage:
I have taken a siesta since earlier this year when I turned an about face regarding Chinese equities listed on US Exchanges. I used to think that they were real. Boy, was that an awakening experience. Apparently investing in the fundamentals as they are stated in SEC filings is not fundamental investing. Fundamental investing is investing in what those fundamentals are supposed to represent, the future and present profitability combined with the present financial position of a company. I recently restarted my e-mail newsletter and a good friend of mine says that I should take a look at this company traded in Canada. Historically, I’ve never spent much time at all looking at Canadian companies. After looking at this one, however, I am baffled by the present price. Well, that’s a lie. I’m not baffled. There are reasons that the company is cheap. But all of them combined do not warrant the present price being a sustainable price. My forecast is that higher prices are indeed in this company’s future. The chart below explains their past.
I looked at the website and clicked the chart and then ignored it:
I feel like this is the theme song coming from anyone who I recommend this company to. Everyone hates phone books. Everyone hates falling prices. That is, everyone but me, apparently. The short list of reasons why everyone hates this company:
- They cut their dividend.
- They were removed from an index.
- They are below $1.
- They are traded outside the USA.
- They are in a dying industry
- They might have credit problems.
- Their revenues are declining.
- They just lost a lot of money this last quarter, probably going bankrupt.
- The company has stopped giving guidance.
Even the analysts have given up:
I went out of my way to call the analysts. Optimistic? Not in the slightest. I had to practically beg them to give me information. They sounded completely dreadful. It was hilarious. Then, they admitted that they’d probably be fine at least through next year. Great success. Here are their reports: report 1, report 2.
Their last quarter’s results are on tap here.
All things aside, here are the reasons that I am buying:
- The company is hugely cash flow positive, especially on a price basis.
- This could be a 10-bagger from here fairly easily.
- The old owners wanted a dividend. When the dividend was cut, I expect all the grandmas sold.
- Tax loss selling ends soon.
- Sometimes people are forced to sell at low prices.
- The analysts have given up.
- The analysts projections are really really good! The price they justify is clearly not paying attention to their fundamentals!
- I’ve never seen a company go under that is making money and can pay their debts as they come up.
ProTip:
If you own YLO, take a look at their preferreds. There’s arbitrage opportunity if you short their common and go long their preferred A shares.
Disclosure: I am long YLWPF.PK.
Additional disclosure: I also own their series A preferred shares. I own both common and preferreds on behalf of myself and my investors.
$PBIB
Hi, I found something interesting today. 2011/11/29 - The Clinton Group has offered to buy stock from the company at book value, but the company has refused, he writes. According to the balance sheet, the company’s book value per share is $8.38. August 5, 2011 - Clinton Group held 6.2% of the company. November 23, 2011 - Clinton Group held 9.4% stake in the company. --- As I see it, there is a large activist investor willing to buy the company at over $8. Apparently management is inept. I don't care how dumb management is. If there is a huge buyer willing to pay $8 and is accumulating the stock and the stock does look cheap based on fundamentals and is trading at $3 or lower, it's worth looking into. Their market capitalization is their present cash flow. Sounds good to me. The 51% owner of the company is the chairman: http://people.forbes.com/profile/j-chester-porter/64648 http://www.bizjournals.com/louisville/print-edition/2011/07/22/shareholders-ask-for-leadership-change.html?page=all I'll be buying some of this. Glen Bradford
$FULL
Interesting, thanks will, I’ll look into this… 3 hours later from new Orleans, I’m presently listening to the conference call.
12.89 9.11
9.11 book value, average coupon rate is 12.89% ~ payments of $1.17/share per year.
Most of their statistics are better than your average bdc. 100% cash payments 95% senior secured credit facilities.
Present price of $7 with $0.924 of dividends per year.
They aren’t overleveraged. Slrc has 0 leverage btw. I like that one and am daytrading it. I think I’ll daytrade this too… increase my yield while decreasing my risk profile.
For $7 you get roughly 16.7% annualized return at present…. 13% of that is paid out in cash dividends. Not bad at all.
Do Not Lose,
CEO ARM Holdings LLC
None of the above is intended as investment advice. I can’t guarantee the information I gathered is from an accurate source. I may buy or sell any stock or security without prior notice.
Disclaimer: http://www.glenbradford.com/disclaimer.php
From: Will Thrower
Sent: Sunday, January 01, 2012 5:36 PM
To: Glen Bradford
Subject: Re: next favorite
right now i only own mostly YLO and a little FULL. FULL is not terribly interesting, just a straightforward BDC trading at a 30% discount to NAV and paying a monthly distribution amounting to a 14% annual yield.
On Fri, Dec 30, 2011 at 3:31 PM, Glen Bradford <globalspeculation@gmail.com> wrote:
After dexo and lee and ylo, what is your next favorite?
Do Not Lose,
CEO ARM Holdings LLC
None of the above is intended as investment advice. I can’t guarantee the information I gathered is from an accurate source. I may buy or sell any stock or security without prior notice.
Disclaimer: http://www.glenbradford.com/disclaimer.php
eurocapital controls foreshadow contagiousness spreading
Wanted to bring this to everyone’s attention. If you look at the private capital liquidity flows, they are flowing away from the risk (and rightly so) and towards perceived safety. What do they do when they realize that Germany is the Vendor in the Vendor Financing ponzi scheme and actually is in a pretty bad place if the scheme falls apart? That’s where things get interesting.
Intervention tends to precede the inevitable in these cases, especially when things are structured seemingly impossibly. If this european situation plays out the way that I think it will, the US Dollar is fine for the intermediate term. It’s rather peculiar to me to see the extent of large governments trying to micromanage the global economy to their immediate advantage. To give insight into that perspective, if you are a country, you actually want a weaker currency because it stimulates your economy by making you the low cost producer. If you are a currency issuer like the USA, it’s fairly straight forward, print and spend more. That said, I don’t think that we are anywhere close to hyperinflation because the USA public sector is leveraging up slower than the private sector is deleveraging.
There are those like Kyle Bass who forecast that the USA is in trouble in the future, but I think that he views this from the false paradigm of the perceived necessity that governments can’t sustainably run deficits. They sure can! In regards to the global competitive landscape, I would argue that this is almost necessary given that it’s one of those: “If you can’t beat them, join them” type attitudes. Since China manipulates everything at the expense of their poor laborers so that they can have mafia members and members of the party running large corporations, effectively slave labor. This kind of pushed extremes recently where the safe haven currencies have been rallying so hard that it has begun to hurt those economies because they are comparably more expensive producers then.
If we do get a large unwinding, Goldman Sachs is conservatively estimating the S&P is worth $900 which is roughly a 25% decline from where we sit today. That’s in line with my expectation that about 25% of the global economy is some sort of fraudulent activity or manipulation.
Still hoping that we can avoid this European crisis, but I don’t know. I think that things have a natural sequence of events and I still think that it is coming, but the powers that be are going to do everything they can to at least appear like they are resolving it, but at this point I am seeing far too much momentum in the direction of failure. I was short the Euro for the last 8 months but pulled the plug on the short position because I think the situation calls for a lot of Euro demand because that is what they are all short of over there.
At least the US banks have been mostly recapitalized. European banks are infinitely worse than US banks. Depositors for the most part still trust them, but this is easily changed and would be easily changed if the average person knew what Credit Default swaps are and that the default risk of their banks and their country is blowing out like a fire hose.
In simple terms, what do you do if someone owes you more than they’ll ever be able to afford to pay you? You mark it down. Extending and pretending sure is fun though. 