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	<title>GlobalSpeculation.com &#187; llfh</title>
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	<description>Bargain hunting for the sport</description>
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		<title>Screw it!</title>
		<link>http://www.globalspeculation.com/archives/189</link>
		<comments>http://www.globalspeculation.com/archives/189#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 29 Jun 2009 19:35:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Glen Bradford</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[ACAS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[aib]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[chgi]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ire]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[llfh]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[wemu]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://web.ics.purdue.edu/~gbradfor/gs/?p=189</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Yeah, I was actually strategizing if I was going to blog about my findings anymore since I&#8217;m running a hedge fund. bottom line, it&#8217;s something I like to do&#8230; and I also like to write for thestreet and seekingalpha and run around on ihub. so, i&#8217;m going to keep doing what I like to do. [...]<script type="text/javascript">SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: "Screw it!", url: "http://www.globalspeculation.com/archives/189" });</script>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yeah, I was actually strategizing if I was going to blog about my findings anymore since I&#8217;m running a hedge fund. bottom line, it&#8217;s something I like to do&#8230; and I also like to write for thestreet and seekingalpha and run around on ihub.</p>
<p>so, i&#8217;m going to keep doing what I like to do.</p>
<p>apwr- yuck<br />holi- yuck<br />cpst &#8211; yuck<br />ceua &#8211; 30% growth rate, p/e of 9, 2x book value<br />llfh &#8211; 25% growth rate, p/e of 8, 2.5x book value<br />anrgf &#8211; no clue<br />sutr &#8211; 30% growth clouded by recession, P/E of 5<br />wemu &#8211; 100% growth this year, 30% into the future prolly, P/E of 9<br />aemd &#8211; icky<br />ceua &#8211; p/e of 9, microcap for a couple years yet.<br />niv &#8211; growth of 20%, P/E of 10<br />bhrt &#8211; icky<br />qgp &#8211; yoink, yuck<br />blsw &#8211; icky<br />xsnx &#8211; nope<br />lege &#8211; nope<br />etak &#8211; nope<br />rxii &#8211; nope<br />npws &#8211; hype + potential? i don&#8217;t care&#8230; waiting on this one.<br />gsi &#8211; looking into this one<br />csgh news<br />cphi news<br />yhgg &#8211; big potential pinkie, better than SIAF in my opinion<br />ciwt &#8211; expensive for my taste<br />chio &#8211; expensive for my taste<br />sutr &#8211; dip in fundies and already on the nasdaq<br />ors &#8211; still a/r hurting<br />caei &#8211; lots of upside, but still not cheap<br />mbrx &#8211; not profitable<br />cheh &#8211; not a stock<br />cga &#8211; expensive<br />cdii &#8211; expensive<br />ceua &#8211; expensive<br />rino &#8211; will likely outperform the market and probably pull 200% in the next 2 years, not enough for me seeing other opportunities<br />jngw &#8211; hurting, check Q2 earnings<br />chbo &#8211; no revenues, i just threw up in my mouth<br />ddr- payed out preferred dividend<br />inmd &#8211; too expensive for this type of investing climate<br />UNG – not interested<br />SD – not interested<br />HGT – looks interesting, prolly an 8% yielder. Upside is $25, not enough for me<br />NGLPF &#8211; dont like it<br />CPTC &#8211; dont like it<br />domr &#8211; no track record<br />vlov &#8211; no volume, but looks to have a p/e of around 5<br />pmi &#8211; and risk-o was his name-o<br />spng &#8211; appears to be a $100M company, price says that too, and lots of potential growth. not cheap enough right now<br />octi &#8211; no revenues<br />cagc &#8211; not cheap enough, but growth of 33% NEG CASH FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES<br />jngw &#8211; revisit in Q2<br />zolt &#8211; too expensive<br />zagg &#8211; wayyyy expensive</p>
<p>pulled the following from some crazy analytical guy that sells ideas that will in my opinion beat the market, but who cares about marginally beating the market? I don&#8217;t. Not now, not when I can make 200% in 4 months.<br />    * Kirby Corporation (KEX): Strong Interest (93%), Peter Lynch-based model<br />    * Diana Shipping (DSX): Strong Interest (93%), Peter Lynch-based model<br />    * Overseas Shipping (OSG): Strong Interest (93%), Peter Lynch-based model; Some Interest (90%), Joseph Piotroski-based model<br />    * TBS International (TBSI): Strong Interest (93%), Peter Lynch-based model<br />    * International Shipholding (ISH): Strong Interest (93%), Peter Lynch-based model; Some Interest (83%), Motley Fool-based model<br />    * SEACOR Holdings (CKH): Some Interest (86%), Benjamin Graham-based model; Some Interest (74%), Peter Lynch-based model</p>
<p>kex &#8211; not interested &#8212; too expensive + turnaround<br />dsx &#8211; dry bulk &#8211; interesting, but i think china is bidding these up in the short term and so i like FREE, SBLK, DAC more<br />osg &#8211; looks appealingly cheap with high growth, will look deeper<br />tbsi &#8211; not profitable last quarter, so more risky, but i picked outperform in CAPS (not real money)<br />ish &#8211; volatile stock price, buy below 18 and sell above 22 seems like a good gig &#8230; i might be doing it &#8211; did it with CAEI for a couple &#8220;20% in 3 day&#8221; pops<br />ckh &#8211; price looks a lot like the baltic drybulk index. too expensive. no way.</p>
<p>my thoughts on the following list, i&#8217;m only going to cover ones i havent covered.<br />ABAT, AKRK, BKYI, CAEI, CCTR, CHFI, CHGY, CNOA, CSGH, CYXN, ETFC, GHII, LTHU, LTUS, NWD, ORS, XING</p>
<p>abat &#8211; too expensive<br />byki &#8211; too expensive<br />cctr &#8211; well&#8230; scam, or deal of a life time? referenced nmkt too. looks interesting, see below<br />cctr &#8211; revisited immediately &#8211; 110,944,194 shares outstanding, P/E > 50. not a growth story, not interested<br />lthu &#8211; haha NO WAY<br />NMKT &#8211; revisited again, pink sheets, and they&#8217;ve got videos from this really clean cut guy in a suit with what he thinks are good mba presentation skills. i hate these people. empty suits, but maybe i&#8217;m wrong here, bottom line is i am risk averse., their lead people make $200,000+, and share dilution is out the butt, screw them<br />siaf &#8211; still a pink sheet, seeks quotation on the OTCBB. cool. but looks like 52M shares outstanding yields a market cap of 37M, which upts the p/E higher than 5 and P/S > 2. i&#8217;m not interested<br />mtxx &#8211; down huge, for a reason. not interested.. icky &#8212; but if you wanna dig deeper, let me know. prolly will go up above $5.70</p>
<p>aib &#8211; whoah nilly. why haven&#8217;t i looked into this sooner.<br />ire &#8211; whoah nilly. why haven&#8217;t i looked into this sooner.<br />txic &#8211; looks like a forward looking p/e of 3.58<br />hwd &#8211; wow &#8211; the motley fool keeps sucking less in their newsletter picks. but hell, they are getting better. this one will outperform and be a multi-bagger.</p>
<p>ACAS &#8211; If American Capital survives, let’s see here. They are paying out stock as a dividend. Looks like a $200M dividend ballpark. Just assume that none of this dividend is cash. So now they throw out another 50M shares. If they do this 3 times, that’s 350M shares outstanding and a current market cap of 1.361B<br />Still cheap in my book, but I’d take the price back in 2006 and say $35 is your high point, so with 50% dilution, $17.50 is your new high point. So, I’m saying banks are fairly valued down 50% from where they were, so I’d be out at $9 unless the market turns up big and they aren’t diluting.<br />Lazy analysis is better than anything an analyst can do for you.</p>
<p>chgi &#8211; Yeah it’s a pretty compelling story as they already have money making lines…and given the fact they’re the only company in China with the ability to produce “nuclear graphite”. The gov’t in China is currently building 40 nuclear reactors at 12 facilities throughout China by 2015. CHGI is the only publicly traded Chinese company with the technology to produce this type of graphite. <br />cpe<br /> &#8211; looks cheap, but i can&#8217;t figure out</p>
<p>China Real Estate Opportunities SA<br />(Public, LON:CREO)</p>
<p>chump of the day<br />http://finance.yahoo.com/special-edition/active-investor/options-beyond-fear</p>
<p>philip guziec<br />http://www.moneyshow.com/directory/speaker.asp?speakerid=5E54BF2B5F7547959B039BA50831C736</p>
<p>Being the CFO for OPAI<br />http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=208628&#038;t=01000000000214846910</p>
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