GlobalSpeculation.com

Predictable and boring is what I look for. I love the companies that the mutual funds don’t even pay attention to and have huge insider ownership. The two books that I would recommend at this point:

Buffetology by Mary Buffet (A book that outlines what Buffet does.. a favorite so far)

The Exceptional Presenter Koegel (A book on presentational skills, not investing).

After that, I’ve read a lot of garbage books, but Peter Lynch’s One Up on Wall Street is also good.. but I’d read it after Buffetology.

I have an abstract.doc file that outlines some of my core beliefs and books, in the stocks folder on my website www.glenbradford.com/files/Stocks

You’re in the car industry. F and GM are your forte. I am trying to stay out of the auto industry. I don’t see it growing much. I think most people have cars these days. The auto industry also takes most of the earnings it has to reinvest.. but I don’t think that there’s much here to return to shareholders as quickly as I look for returns. The market’s too saturated. Quick Glance to google: Ford doesnt look profitable. GM doesn’t look profitable either. It doesn’t make sense to me to buy into a future stream of negative cash flows.

Also… people spend more time shopping for their car than they do for their house or stocks. Also, they only buy cars when they are on sale. That’s my take.

Glen

From: rolen
Sent: Tuesday, September 02, 2008 2:23 PM
To: gbr
Subject: General

Glen,

Just a note to let you know that I enjoyed your article in the SB Tribune Tuesday AM. I have read several of your articles and actually appreciate the “layman’s” terms you use to make your points, specifically in your response to your reader that thought you sounded like a used car salesman! Many of your thoughts make good sense and it must be somewhat exhilarating to know that your ideas can move markets. Ironically I am in the “used car” business locally and although it has been very good to me, I find it very predicable and boring after 25 years. However, I have began to watch Cramer and study other publications and would enjoy some suggestive reading that you have used as a basis for your general philosophy. One is never too old to learn. I recently bought F and GM as an unschooled man would surmise that these, although not fast movers, are going to explode in the next 6-12 months. Additionally I own WM as I feel the financial sector is poised for the next big surge in growth and profit. NVDA however, kicked my butt a year or so ago and I almost quit playing, but I suppose it is similar to child birth in that 1 year down the road you kind of forget what it felt like! Keep up the good work….Clint

I look for stocks that have exhibited the potential to grow in the past.

I look for stocks that are increasing profits as fast as they are growing their revenues.

I look for stocks that are growing faster than the market.

I look for stocks without debt and a good company track record of reinvesting the ROE –buying companies, stock buybacks, etc.

I look for all of this, underpriced. A rule of thumb is a growth rate that’s higher than the PE ratio (Lynch).

Graham has a Warranted Market Value Equation that I use as well.

http://www.moneychimp.com/articles/valuation/graham.htm

Here’s the list of the stocks that I pulled together tonight…. It’s a great place to start in my opinion since I’ve been actively screening them out of everywhere… and rated them to the top of my list. I haven’t sorted them yet. That comes next. I sort them from most favorite to least favorite.

Tickers
midd
ebix
xin
lxu
vsec
ande
apa
kci
adm
wab
ktii
beav
cedc
mtw
ndaq
ctsh
cbi
sohu
pcp
zumz
nvda
ezpw
bucy
nov
ard
air
azz
vdsi
pcr
oii
cas
jakk
mei
oxy
cmtl

Glen

From: JARED
Sent: Tuesday, September 02, 2008 9:26 AM

Subject: please help

Hi Glen,

I came across you website when trying to research stocks and found in researching it, it gave me inspiration. I’ve been attempting to trade stocks for a couple years now with limited success. I’ve really lost a lot of more than I have made by “buying stocks my friends told me about”. I’ve all but given up until I read you website. I would at least like to make my money back that I have lost and I also am in a situation where I need to finish up a degree with limited funds. Would you be willing to share with me your strategy for picking stocks? I would really like to know everything from research to deciding what to invest in.

Thank you very much for any help you can provide,

Jared

http://www.stockpickr.com/members/problog/868/

Mr. Bradford,

Sorry to say, this is a very disappointing aritcle. What is the connection between taxes and decreasing the number of shares outstanding? Is this a new strategy of Mr. Buffett? You fail to make the connection.

Other points – Why are earnings going to “rocket”? How does any of this related to Mr. Buffett’s investing strategy?

You sound like a used car salesman.
By:skipolinger@comcast.net
Date: 08/19/08
test

Good Day skipolinger@comcast.net

I try to write my articles as concise as possible and omitted a few details that you brought into question.

Q1: You asked for the connection between taxes and decreasing the number of shares outstanding.

Answer1:

When a company achieves a positive net income (makes money), there are many ways to utilize this money that benefit the shareholders. Generally, this made money first is categorized under shareholders’ equity. The company can use this money to improve it’s facilities and make general repairs, expand into other locations, purchase other companies, pay dividends, or buy-back stock. It is my understanding that Warren would have it that the company will make the decisions that in their minds benefit the shareholders the most. In the case of Terex, the current construction dilemma doesn’t warrant a lot of investment in purchasing more production equipment. Also, paying a dividend involves a double taxation. The income is first taxed at the corporate level and then is taxed when the investor receives the dividend. When the company buys stock back (reducing the number of outstanding shares), this net income only gets taxed once. I don’t believe paying less taxes is a new strategy of Mr. Buffet. He achieves this through several measures, such as avoiding trading companies and buying them with the intent of owning them. This avoids lots of transaction costs and taxes.

Q2: You asked why earnings are going to rocket.

Answer2:

I play my cards with good management. It’s my opinion that good management tends to make good decisions. With companies deciding to buyback stock at lower price levels when their company isn’t being pulled to expand, I can see them also making favorable decisions when business is booming.

Hope this helps.

Glen Bradford

Hey,

I have hurc as a buy up till $68.17 and KCI a buy up to $44.76.

I’m not going to tell you to buy or sell anything, but I’ll tell you what I do. I put my money where I think the best returns are.. and then I diversify as much as possible in those ideas. I don’t follow INTC or STX. I only buy stocks that I think are undervalued for their growth by 100%.

Not bad so far,
Glen

—–Original Message—–
From: PAURIC SHEVLIN
Sent: Friday, August 22, 2008 3:29 PM
To: Glen
Subject: Question regarding HURC and KCI

Hi Glen,

How highly do you rate both the aboved named stocks? I am just inquiring as I hold stock on both INTC and STX and was thinking of selling them to buy both the above stocks on your recommendation, would I be wise to do this as I rate your opinion highly.

Regards,
Pauric

A commonsense viewpoint to picking companies that are highly undervalued in a complex and globalizing economy

Allow me to start out by illustrating that I’m paying my college tuition with proceeds from the stock market. In fact, I’m making more in the stock market than I do as an Engineer, and I’m only investing 40K. Below you will find my current holdings and my reasoning behind holding each one, but first, what do they have in common? They all have historically exhibited huge growth potential and show little to no signs of stopping. They are all priced ridiculously cheap for this potential. The stock market is a huge grocery store, and if you see 59 inch plasma TVs on sale for $5, it only makes sense to purchase a few… right?

VSEC: VSE Corp. was an entirely undiscovered company up till about 2 weeks ago. Then trading volumes doubled for around 10 straight days and have finally settled off. This leads me to believe that there is a fund out there that believes it’s a huge bargain. The reason the company is at a discount is due to free cash flow issues on their financial statements, but when it’s the US Government footing the bills… I feel like this metric is 100% useless.

SIGM: Sigma Designs, Inc. is your basic case of a company having strong fundamentals and growing so fast that it had to readjust its most recent forecast for less growth due to product changes. After the revision, they then upped their forecast and are back on track. Fortunately, the stock plummeted and offers a great opportunity to buy in until their price readjusts.

HURC: Hurco Companies, Inc. is one of those companies that really has no reason to be priced as cheaply as it is. It’s hugely predictable and it’s enormously profitable and growing fast.

EBIX: Ebix, Inc. is insurance for your portfolio. They currently develop software for the insurance industry and are expanding to the medical industry.
MIDD: Middleby Corp. supports all your favorite meals by supplying the equipment used to prepare them. It could also support your portfolio if you’re looking for a home run. If you’re looking for base hits, you might have realized that you’re reading the wrong article.

LXU: LSB Industries Inc. is a top notch climate control and chemical products company. I’m going to go ahead and assume that it’s in the bargain bin cause of the mortgage crisis that is sweeping America. Just cause they’re not building homes doesn’t mean that the air conditioning doesn’t need replacement. It’s feeling hot. So is this opportunity.

AOB: American Oriental Bioengineering, Inc. greatly enhances your position in china and pharmaceuticals. It already has a huge client base and is growing rapidly. Their stock continues to suffer. Fortunately, in the long run the stock price is guided mostly by its earnings per share and not irrational speculative fears and concerns.

WAB: Wabtec Corporation makes train air brakes. This one is the least undervalued of any of my picks but I feel that the high speed rail industry is still only in its early growth stages. Wabtec is in prime position to take advantage of this.

XIN: Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. Is the most undervalued growth company I have ever seen. Trading at $5 is totally unreasonable. They just IPOed and had to pay off their preferred shareholders and incurred a onetime net loss. Otherwise, they are growing somewhere around 78%-400% a year depending on whose opinion you’re reading. Not only that, but over 60% of the company is owned by its employees. They are also only doing real estate in Tier II communities, which have yet to be inflated in value, unlike the Tier I.

TEX: Terex Corp. manufactures cranes and industrial construction equipment. When the mortgage melt down occurred, it took this one’s stock price down with it, even though the profitability remained strong and continues to grow. It makes sense to lower the valuations on companies that have incomes that are impacted by a downturn, but Terex has yet to be fazed.

ANDE: The Andersons, Inc. is a fundamentally strong agriculture and transportation company that has the opportunity to grow at even a faster rate than it has previously. That said, I have no real gut feeling on the whole global food shortage ‘crisis,’ but it only makes sense that as populations increase and land stays at about the same, this type of business looks good to me.

NDAQ: NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc. has acquired a few exchanges and integrated many new companies into its trading platform. It’s growing ridiculously fast and is priced like it’s never going to see the sun. Long term, I see trading in the marketplace ceasing to exist and it becoming mostly electronic and at the same time trading costs coming down. Right now, this is a great play.

KTII: K-Tron International, Inc. is a material handling and equipment systems company for various international companies. They have good upper management and global exposure and have been growing faster than the market currently has them priced for.

KCI: Kinetic Concepts, Inc. is a medical technology company that is highly profitable and growing very fast. Recently they acquired LifeCell, a company that had been growing YOY at 100%+ and KCI should continue growing at at least 30%, but is priced like it’s not going to grow. Get in on this opportunity before the earnings are revised and don’t include the transaction costs of acquiring great companies like LifeCell.

EZPW: EZCORP, Inc. is my play on the mortgage crisis. When people need cash advances they go to the payday loan shops and EZCorp is willing to provide these individuals solutions to meet their short term cash needs. It’s going to be providing its investors with their long term cash needs through continued growth and is valued in the market like it’s not. I’m thinking about getting a cash advance to buy this company.

CTSH: Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp. is your one stop shop for outsourcing technology services throughout the developed countries. Once they win over their customers, they continue to gain revenue through supporting their applications. There’s nothing but growth here and again, it’s another stock that is priced way below its growth potential.

Anyway, that’s the trick. Finding companies that are going to grow rapidly and are priced like they aren’t and then diversifying amongst them. It’s easier to hit home runs if you get more than just one shot. That’s my stock market as a super market philosophy and there are all sorts of people telling you differently. I own all these stocks at the present time.

The results found from the new “google replacement” search engine.. are terrible.

“No results because of high load…

Due to excessive load, our servers didn’t return results. Please try your search again.”

Try searching for ben graham?

http://www.cuil.com/search?q=ben%20graham&pi=11&sl=long

yeah.. talk about irrelevant!

Who cares if it searches more of the internet.. Most of the internet i dont feel like reading.

Recently saw the Dark Knight in the IMAX. Woot! Anyway, I started a new stock strategy.

Right Click this image and click view image

Losing communication is difficult.

Lesson learned: Chin up, face forward. Live life in drive.

A foolish man does not understand his limitations and overextends himself.

A wise man knows his boundaries and maximizes his potential. I will be here. I will maximize my bounded rationality. It’s the best I know. This isn’t to say that there aren’t people out there that I miss terribly and would save them. This is to say that I am a solid foundation. I am a choice. If it is your choice to not stand on my foundation, then you are free to stand in someone else’s sand. Beach parties are fun. Panama City SB ’08.

-Ryan Smith, Jordan Jo Bailey, Nate Keller, Lenka Kollar, Erin Eyster, and your’s truly, Glen Bradford

I went one time with Peter, Danny Marti, Trevor Miller to Daytona.

Sigma Nu should be down the beach. I am excited because there are many opportunities that I am trying to execute at this point in my life and I have no idea where I will be, who I will be there with, and what I will be doing 3 months from now.
Good Night!

Ever feel like you are a dam opposing a streams natural flow and that you only have so much throughput capabilities and can only stand up against so much water, and even though you are at peak production the water level on the other side is rising?

I’ve found that as my age increases, so too does the amount of things that I would like to do. Meanwhile, the probability that I would do them diminishes at a constant rate as my focus continues to narrow. I’ve got one life, with the goal being to maximize happiness. In a bounded theory world, I can only do my best within my realm of knowledge because the cost of obtaining all of the knowledge to make the “best” decision simply is too high. So, within this realm, as long as I push forward to try to make the best decisions based on my previous experiences.. that’s really the best I can do. The stock market is in a recession, surprise! Anyway, I’m still allocating the same and my focus is long term.

If you are reading this, and are unable to discern between what is worth fighting for, first ask yourself the probability of actually keeping what you fought for if you win the fight. Then ask yourself the probability of winning the fight. Then ask yourself if you can live with not even trying.

The greatest risk still is not taking one, and unhappiness will lead you to dropping everything you know and taking these great risks. After the culmination of an increasing rate of riskier and riskier scenarios, what have I got to show for it? I’ve got knowledge. I’ve learned that if someone is slowly pulling themselves out of your life at an increasing rate that trying to hold on to what was once blissful ignorance is simply self-destructive.

Keep this in mind, move forward with grace and learn from the past because nothing is more unforgivable than continually repeating past mistakes.

Well. I didn’t get what I wanted for Christmas. Tough Luck.

I was reading an excellent publication by First Trust about the market forecast for 2008, but I left it on the plane. My only predictions for 2008 are that the Large Caps that have the leverage to grow into the emerging markets will flourish. China won’t see as much growth as it has, but other countries will pick up the pace, like Ireland, India, Vietnam, South Korea, ?Singapore?

Tribute to EB Wiggins. This is indeed an inflection point as a captivating analytical stochastic time series article might suggest. Are we concave up, or concave down? Are we switching? I just hope you and I are looking at the same graph. -See above and reference whether I got what I wanted for Christmas this year or not.

Glen’s Experience