Basic Beliefs May 7, 2011

Well, I could be wrong. I frequently am. Here are some things that I think are reasonably accurate given my perception of the world May 7, 2011.

1. Peak Oil. We are here. Thank god for natural gas and fracking. Abiotic oil is disprovable by simply asking the hypothetical question, “If it is the origin of oil, why aren’t we leveraging those theories to find new sources of oil?”

2. China is a crapshoot. They are about to crash, harder, faster, and dumber. It’s as if they didn’t learn from their last “Great Leap Forward” — because what followed was about 20 steps backwards.

3.  Because of point 2, and unnecessary eurozone tightening, Greece will exit the Euro Zone. We’ll see global deflation and it’s likely that governments are very afraid of deflation. They can confront this fear by printing money. I expect them to do so.

4. George Soros and Carlos Slim — two of the richest people and smartest people in the world sold gold and silver for a reason. They aren’t stupid. Being a billionaire and filthy rich means that you might have some good ideas worth listening to.

5. Unspeakable things. Mostly including long dollar, short euro, short commodities, short stocks, short real estate (USA/portugal/australia/china/greece/dubai/etc.),