GlobalSpeculation.com
Because it does not make sense not to

14 Tuition Breaking Stocks
By
Glen Bradford
You might have been like my friends and family in the past 6-months — afraid to check the portfolio, afraid to accidently see the latest Dow Jones beatdown, full of upset stomach from a depreciating portfolio of Large Caps that your broker said were a great buy 2 years ago. You might be in a state of denial. You might be sitting 100% cash with 2-years of fallout supplies packed into your basement. I challenge you to open your eyes and go hunt with me for bargains.
What sets Super Markets apart from Stock Markets is pretty straight forward. At the Super Market, a 50%-0ff sale draws people from across the country to line up at 4am and stampede the bargains. At the Stock Market, a 50%-off sale is like a bomb threat in an airport. There are those that make gobs of money in times when the stock market is 50%-off. The trick is not looking around for the 50%-off items, because those really aren’t the bargains anymore. There are stocks that are 95%-off in a 50%-off sale. I call this the clearance aisle. These goods are selling less than their cost to make (book value). The trick here is differentiating ones that are high quality from those of lesser quality. I set my parameters fairly straight forward. The companies I buy have to be profitable and growing.
Then, the trick is continuously learning how companies can and may scam their investors. I look for indications of accounting fraud, and try to eliminate those companies from my lists. Did you know that companies can boast huge numbers year-after-year and not be making money?
Now, I’m not saying that all 14 of these companies are going to be up 300% 1 year from today. What I am saying is that by being certain that I am uncertain, I can diversify my college tuition nest egg into 14 of the cheapest discounted cash flow companies out of the 5,000 I’ve sorted through. I can also do my best to minimize my risk by knowing how to identify accounting fraud and not paying more than book value for a stock. By doing this, I am certain that I will candidly beat the market over time. Don’t believe me? That’s fine. All I can do for you is give you the opportunity. The choice is yours to take it, or leave it.
Below I’ve compiled a table of all the plays I am considering or possibly in. Mind you that I have been betting my college tuition on my advice. Some of the numbers have been adjusted by me in order to reflect my feelings on the stock itself as well as potential dilutions.
Earnings Price P/E P/B Growth Bust Target Boom Target Exchange Listed? Bottom?
cno $ 0.85 $ 1.35 1.59 0.15 16% $6.80 $13.60 1 1.0
ghii $ 0.13 $ 0.08 0.62 0.16 27% $1.04 $3.51 0 0.7
nwd $ 0.20 $ 0.17 0.85 0.13 13% $1.60 $2.60 1 0.3
caei $ 0.50 $ 1.00 2.00 1.06 25% $4.00 $12.50 1 0.5
chcg $ 0.51 $ 0.92 1.80 0.55 20% $4.08 $10.20 0 0.8
cyxn $ 0.19 $ 0.27 1.42 0.68 25% $1.52 $4.75 0 0.9
gnph $ 2.16 $ 4.95 2.29 0.54 12% $17.28 $25.92 0 0.5
opai $ 0.20 $ 0.14 0.70 0.18 30% $1.60 $6.00 0 0.5
ltus $ 0.24 $ 0.30 1.25 0.32 26% $1.92 $6.24 0 0.6
ckgt $ 0.14 $ 0.30 2.14 0.23 11% $1.12 $1.54 0 0.6
akrk $ 0.09 $ 0.19 2.11 0.35 20% $0.72 $1.80 0 0.6
fas $ 4.00 $ 7.20 1.80 0.3 15% $32.00 $60.00 1 0.7
cneh $ 0.70 $ 1.49 2.13 0.61 20% $5.60 $14.00 0.5 0.4
xing $ 0.65 $ 1.32 2 0.17 10% $7.60 $9.50 0 0.5

I also figure that I’ll outline my sentiment. I’m bullish financials that are down 85%+ in the last 3 years that are likely to survive this downturn. I’m neutral-bullish commodity prices. I’m neutral-bearish the US dollar; not because of this narrative fallacy of monetizing the US deficit, but because of the US-Treasury bubble bursting and the reversal of the “run to the dollar for safety” trend. I’m bullish emerging markets.
Disclaimer: Glen and his investors currently own cno, ghii, nwd, caei, chcg, cyxn, gnph, opai, ltus, fas, cneh. Glen and his investors intend to purchase the other stocks mentioned in this article.

Conseco’s Got Money
By
Glen Bradford

Lil’ Wayne is performing at the Conseco Fieldhouse tonight. As a tribute to the rap star I think we should all take a less on from, I’m compiling a short list of reasons why Conseco is hip and why it’s Got Money. For starters, the cash balance in the last 2 months has doubled:

Corporate liquidity
Available holding and non-life company liquidity of $59 million at 12/31/08
$108 million of liquidity at 2/27/09

First, allow me to introduce myself. I don’t believe in the efficient market hypothesis. By that, I mean that I believe that companies that make more money and are set to make more money than other companies should come with higher price tags than those other companies. Unfortunately, capital markets don’t always reflect this belief and I plan to capitalize on select opportunities. The goal is to maximize upside potential and at the same time minimize downside risk. That’s precisely what Conseco’s been doing in my opinion by spinning off Senior Health.

JK was the last person to talk about Conseco. I shot him a couple e-mails. He was more optimistic than the article suggested. I would like to quote a short part of the article that summarizes my feelings on Conseco.

Conseco has reported better numbers in the past, said Binner, the Friedman Billings analyst. But they were pumped up due to problems that have been uncovered since the 2006 arrival of CEO Jim Prieur and Chief Financial Officer Ed Bonach.

“Jim and Ed have created a better-functioning Conseco than ever really existed,” Binner said. “They are real, and they’re really fixing the company. But the economic backdrop is just so terrible right now.”

I came across Conseco through my friend Pat Davenport. He thinks that man is presently fear based, and that expecting rationality across the whole is foolish. With respect to CNO; he suggested that they won’t default, and if they do they’ll recontract their debt. Therefore, in the long run their problems are not real. However, perceptions of reality are what drive the stock. When perception and reality align, the stock should go up. So, even if they default, it won’t matter. Companies rest covenants all the time.
Profiting in the 2nd quarter is highly likely, if not the 1st. Since it takes about a quarter to go both into serious bankruptcy procedures as well as debt collection, it will be hard to convince a judge of the need for either bankruptcy or insolvency when they post a profit.

What I see here is a company that you can buy at a P/E of 0.25 of forecasted earnings assuming that they survive. They have pushed back filing their annual report because they are currently getting audited to see if they can continue as a company. The upside here is 3200%+. Conseco is less risky than their competitors because they focus on high quality fixed rate investments and have little exposure to risky assets as well as are focusing on decreasing exposure to these asset classes.
If you’re interested in some of the latest information on this company, you could try reading the Q4 2008 Transcript (Supporting Slides). My favorite part is on page 9, where a large, and in my opinion fairly uninformed, unidentified investor asks whether the insurance company could access TARP.
Risk is not knowing what you’re doing. For those who want to join me and take over a company for pennies on the dollar, Turn up the Lil’ Wayne. Imagine how risky it would be if Lil’ Wayne couldn’t remember his song lyrics. For him, performing a large concert is less risky than your average guy because Lil’ Wayne knows what he’s doing.

Disclosure: I own CNO in my account and in my investor’s accounts.

I’m trying to figure out why the last 2 months volume is 4x the quantity of authorized shares. I’m investigating. I have talked to Terry Mixon on the phone. From that regard, he sounds like he knows what he’s talking about.

Sent to the SEC and the State of Nevada:

I’m looking at a Pink Sheets Company. According to the state of Nevada, the authorizes share count is 490M. According to their website 75M shares are authorized and 50M are outstanding.

State of Nevada Website:
https://esos.state.nv.us/SOSServices/AnonymousAccess/CorpSearch/CorpDetails.aspx?lx8nvq=INVWqisJQETCgSdGa%252b3m8g%253d%253d

Company Website:
http://amneotcpk.com/investors.php

Gary Gray, Terry Mixon and John Cangiano are the three people that I am concerned about.

The share volumes over the past 2 months have been over 200M. Could you look up what the current quantity of authorized shares is?

I’m thinking that they’re authorized shares is 490M and the company people are selling 400M shares. What happened to RGNO, AGG, AMNE? Listed websites: www.amgreengroup.com, www.amneotcpk.com, http://www.smallcapvoice.com/amne/factsheet.html, http://www.paradigmpolymers.com

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=31410596

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=28531676

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=30318021

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=35675695

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=27588362

http://cms.ibj.com/ASPXPages/6iframes/FrontEndArticlesDetailPage.aspx?ArticleID=33499&NoFrame=1

JK,

Thanks a bundle. I’m thinking the same thing.

Glen

From: J.K. Wall [mailto:jwa
Sent: Tuesday, March 17, 2009 2:12 PM
To: Bradford, Glen Richard
Subject: RE: Conseco

Glen,

I’m no expert, but I give Conseco 80 percent odds that it avoids bankruptcy. I don’t see how it would make sense for anyone involved, including the senior lenders. It seems the company will do more reinsurance deals first (limiting profits but boosting capital) before the brass let the company go bankrupt.

For what that’s worth.

J.K.

—–Original Message—–
From: Bradford, Glen Richard [mailto:gbrad
Sent: Sat 3/14/2009 2:09 PM
To: J.K. Wall
Subject: Conseco

Hey JK,

If you had to put a probability on it, what do you think the probability
is that Conseco equity shareholders will make it through because the
company is able to write off less discontinued operating losses in 2009
and pay off the debt obligations to Bank of America? 50/50?

Glen Bradford

Purdue University

Masters in Business Administration

Bachelors in Industrial Engineering

School of Engineering Student Ambassador

www.glenbradford.com

24 Hour Watch… Haha, not really. But today’s the day!

Boom!

looks good to me, not cheap enough, but really really close!

great stuff here.

Buy list this week:

GNPH: selling less than cash-total liabilities, you’re a baboon not to buy this if you believe in their latest 10-Q

CNO: see my comments. http://seekingalpha.com/article/123633-conseco-inc-q4-2008-earnings-call-transcript

cyxn: my favorite next to ghii as far as otcbb’s go. watch those accounts recievables

chcg: again watch the a/r, a/p

opai: as baller as ghii, but not as much growth potential but hecka predictable growth of 27% and a P/E < 1… book value is huge too. plus check out the previous statement changes, this thing’s been generating $10M in cashflow over the past year as a $3M company

Thanks for the heads up,

I am a fan of HOGS. I don’t own it, however, because there are other companies with more upside.

Glen

From: Mabel Zhang [mailto:Mabel.Zhang@CCGIR.com]
Sent: Thursday, March 12, 2009 6:06 PM
To: gbradfo
Subject: China’s No.4 Meat Processor Unveils $73-Million Expansion Plan

Hi, Glen,
China’s No.4 meat processor Zhongpin, Inc. (NASDAQ: HOGS) just announced a $73-million expansion plan to increase its annual production capacity for pork products by 21.5% to total 671,760 metric tons by 2010.

The company plans to construct two new plants in Tianjin and Henan to double its production capacity for prepared meat products, which offer higher margin, as well as to increase capacity for chilled and frozen pork products.

Despite the weak economy and soften CPI in China, Zhongpin expects continued strong demands for its healthy, clean and nutritious meat products from consumers in both metropolitan and rural markets.

A completed press release is attached below. Please feel free to contact me for media inquiries to Zhongpin management. Thank you.

Best regards,
Mabel Zhang 張貝
VP, Director of Asia Media Relations | CCG Investor Relations | 10960 Wilshire Blvd. Suite 2050 , Los Angeles , CA 90024 | (310) 954 1353 | mabel.zhang@ccgir.com | www.ccgir.com

Zhongpin to Increase and Streamline Production Capacity

– Increases Annual Prepared Meat Capacity by 133%

– Increases Annual Fruit and Vegetable Capacity by 14%

– Increases Annual Chilled and Frozen Pork Capacity by 9%

CHANGGE CITY, China, March 12 /PRNewswire-Asia-FirstCall/ — Zhongpin Inc. (Nasdaq: HOGS) (“Zhongpin”), a leading meat and food processing company in the People’s Republic of China (“PRC”), today provided an update on its plan to increase and streamline its production capacity. Zhongpin will begin construction starting in April 2009 of a pork production facility in Tianjin City and a prepared meat facility in Changge City, Henan Province.

The new pork production facility, located in the Jinghai Economic Technical Development Area in Tianjin City, will increase total annual pork production capacity by 136,000 metric tons. The facility will be designed to process 100,000 metric tons of chilled and frozen pork products annually, of which 70% will be dedicated to chilled pork and 30% to frozen pork. The facility will also include annual production capacity of 36,000 metric tons of prepared meat products. This facility is expected to cost $52 million, excluding the investment in land use rights, and will be equipped mostly with state-of-the-art, imported equipment and machinery.

The construction of the new Tianjin facility will also include a new warehouse and distribution center, and a R&D center, which will improve Zhongpin’s product portfolio, support cold chain logistics and effectively accommodate the newly added production capacity by facilitating efficient distribution. The production lines for chilled and frozen pork products are expected to come online at the end of the first quarter of 2010 and will achieve its target utilization rate at the end of the third quarter of 2010. The prepared meat production line and the new warehouse and distribution center are expected to come online by the end of the second quarter of 2010 and will achieve its target utilization rate at the end of the fourth quarter of 2010. Without causing any interruption to its current marketing and distribution program, Zhongpin intends to terminate its lease at the existing Tianjin City facility after production at the new facility begins. With the addition of the new facility and closure of the existing facility in Tianjin City, Zhongpin’s annual chilled and frozen pork production capacity will increase by 9%, reaching 545,760 metric tons from the current 498,760 metric tons.

Zhongpin’s new prepared meat facility, located in Zhongpin’s Industrial Park in Changge City, Henan Province, will increase annual prepared meat production capacity by 36,000 metric tons. The construction of this facility is expected to cost $21 million and it will be equipped with advanced equipment and machinery imported from top-tier international manufacturers. The facility will produce quick-freeze sausages and other prepared meat products catering to varying consumer tastes. The construction of the facility is expected to be completed and commence production by the end of the fourth quarter of 2009. The new facility is expected to achieve its target utilization rate by the end of the second quarter of 2010. With the additional prepared meat production capacity from the new Tianjin and Changge City facilities, Zhongpin’s annual prepared meat products capacity will increase by 133% to 126,000 metric tons from the current 54,000 metric tons.

Zhongpin recently completed the construction of its fruit and vegetable processing facility in Changge City, Henan Province, adding an annual production capacity of 30,000 metric tons. Zhongpin expects to begin production by the end of March 2009 and plans to discontinue outsourcing from its OEM partners which provide an annual production capacity of 2,880 metric tons, and will also transfer the existing fruit and vegetable production at Zhongpin’s Industrial Park, which has an annual production capacity of 12,600 metric tons, to the newly-built fruit and vegetable processing facility. The Board of Directors of Zhongpin approved the closure and disposal plan of Yanling facility in Henan Province which has an annual fruit and vegetable production capacity of 10,800 metric tons. Due to the urban expansion in Yanling City and the latest environment protection restrictions imposed by the China Environment Protection Agency, maintaining fruit and vegetable production operations in Yanling City will require a huge amount of incremental investments. All fruit and vegetable production will be gradually consolidated into the new production facility as it comes online. With the additional capacity from the new facility and further consolidation of existing capacity, Zhongpin’s annual fruit and vegetable production capacity will increase 14% to 30,000 metric tons from the current 26,280 metric tons.

“We are pleased to announce the next stage of our capacity expansion plan. While pork consumption has been temporarily impacted by the economic slowdown in China, our mid to long-term outlook for China’s pork industry remains favorable. Government mandates designed to modernize the pork industry have hastened the transition from traditional wet markets to modern dry markets and we are optimistic that the RMB 4 trillion economic stimulus package will have a positive impact on the economy in the latter half of 2009,” commented by Mr. Xianfu Zhu, Chairman of the Board and CEO of Zhongpin. “We are confident in our ability to bring these new facilities online as planned, quickly ramp up production and continue to grow our business. The new plant in Tianjin City will facilitate our strategic penetration into Northern China, which is one of our primary target markets. Our new prepared meat facility will be located in Henan Province to effectively utilize the advanced R&D capabilities at our headquarters. Our aggressive expansion plans focus on the growth of our prepared meat products line as it offers attractive margins and will help optimize our product mix. As a profitable supplement to our product portfolio, our fruits and vegetables product line will continue to positively contribute to our future growth. We strongly believe that our current cash position combined with our available lines of credit will be sufficient to support our growth strategy.”

About Zhongpin

Zhongpin is a meat and food processing company that specializes in pork and pork products, and fruits and vegetables, in the PRC. Its distribution network in the PRC spans 24 provinces and includes over
2,995 retail outlets. Zhongpin’s export markets include the European Union, Eastern Europe, Russia, Hong Kong, Japan and South Korea. For more information, contact CCG Investor Relations directly or go to Zhongpin’s website at http://www.zpfood.com .

Safe Harbor Statement Under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995:

Certain statements in this press release and oral statements made by Zhongpin on its conference call in relation to this release constitute forward-looking statements for purposes of the safe harbor provisions under The Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements include, without limitation, statements regarding our ability to build and commence the new production facilities according to the timeline described, expectations of future consumer demand, ability to prepare the Company for growth, predictions and guidance relating to the Company’s future financial performance. We have based these forward-looking statements largely on our current expectations and projections about future events and financial trends that we believe may affect our financial condition, results of operations, business strategy and financial needs, but these projections also involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements, which may include, but are not limited to, such factors as, unanticipated changes in product demand, interruptions in the supply of live pigs/raw pork, downturns in the Chinese economy, delivery delays, freezer facility malfunctions, poor performance of the retail distribution network, changes in applicable regulations, and other information detailed from time to time in the Company’s filings and future filings with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. You are urged to consider these factors carefully in evaluating the forward-looking statements herein and are cautioned not to place undue reliance on such forward-looking statements, which are qualified in their entirety by this cautionary statement. The forward-looking statements made herein speak only as of the date of this press release and the Company undertakes no duty to update any forward-looking statement to conform the statement to actual results or changes in the Company’s expectations.

I’m buying into financials tomorrow, using FAS; anticipating the uptick rule to come back and some sort of dealings with mark to market changing the entire ballgame in favor of the long term investor.