The Picking’s Best in China $CPHI $LTUS $CHME $CYXN $JGBO
5 Top Chinese Pharma Plays
By
Glen Bradford
This is the last of a 5 part series on investing in China
My grandfather is a berry picking legend where I come from. The rate at which he picked seems to accelerate as the story propagates, but I would like to show how you can apply successful wild berry picking principles to stock picking. I do want to say that I don’t necessarily focus on Chinese stocks, but any potential investment anywhere in the world that I believe to have incredible potential with limited risk. Right now, the picking is good in Chinese Pharmaceuticals and if you know what you’re doing — I believe you can turn thousands into millions over the next couple years. And that’s after taxes.
1. You need to know where to look. If you go looking for berries in the desert, you might be disappointed. If you’re looking for Pharmaceuticals, you might run across Lotus Pharmaceuticals (OTCBB: LTUS). Like Jack’s magical bean stalk berry, Lotus is my red pill from the Matrix and they are only up 78% since I mentioned them in May. Although they haven’t taken real steps to uplist and the stock price has had a negative correlation with company performance, it is my belief that not picking up this stock for yourself is short sighted to the highest degree. In June they again were awarded GSP certification. If you are short sighted you’ll never make ends meat berry picking and you’ll never find a company like Lotus that is growing and trading at less than twice earnings.
2. You need to know when to look. Although China has been running headlines and a lot of people are bubbling with excitement — it was only last year when China was the poison berry. When you buy determines the price you pay and therefore the risk you undertake — as I believe risk comes only from overpaying. China Pharma Holdings (OTC: CPHI) is another Chinese Pharmaceutical company with falling stock price and improving fundamentals. My grandfather taught me that it doesn’t make sense to pick berries in winter and if you want jam then, you had to have picked them 6 months prior. The same goes with stocks. Timing is everything. Buy when others are “uncertain” as they appear to be in China Pharma, since the price justifies company shrinkage when they forecast 20% growth — it’s time to buy.
3. You need to know what you’re looking for. Like the poison berry from above, picking the wrong attributes to look for in companies will lead you off the investing cliff. Ben Graham focused on P/B. Buffett expanded this to P/E. Ken Fisher emphasized P/S. Peter Lynch focused on PEG. I use all 4. Jiangbo Pharmaceuticals (OTC:JGBO) would be attractive on another measure as well P/C (Price to Cash). With a forward P/E between 2 and 3 and $85M in cash, Jiangbo is priced for bankruptcy at $113M and they are nowhere close considering they have been growing both top and bottom lines at 50% annually.
4. You need to avoid the beaten path. The best berries are found in the untouched wilderness where wild animals scare away intruders. Stocks are no different. The best ones to own aren’t making headlines and your friends have never heard of them, but soon will. China Medicine Corporation (OTC:CHME) is priced to shrink at four times earnings and is growing. Throw in the fact that they are receiving positive results from their new innovative product rADTZ, which is designed to decrease animal mortality rates and save breeder farms some serious cash, and I’ll pick this one.
5. Lastly, when you have the best picking conditions, you need to pick with both hands. The window of best picking opportunity is never open very long. In the past year, I have come to prefer speculation when I believe stocks have little downside. In matters financial, I’ll always pay nothing for something and am willing to work my way up from there and that makes anything close to $0 that’s profitable worth looking at. For China Yongxin Pharmaceuticals (OTC:CYXN), I run my calculations ultra conservatively on 61M shares. Even still you have a growing company priced for bankruptcy. Delicious.
There are several other cheap Chinese pharmaceutical plays out there. Remember when investing that diversification is protection against what you do not know and for some people that is quite a lot. I hope you enjoyed my series on investing in China and I would like to conclude this with a note that I firmly believe that this series will catch more publicity as the stocks mentioned throughout it appreciate in price over the next couple years. But for now, these companies are all growing at significantly higher rates than anything you can find in the USA and at less than one third the price. Brilliant!
Disclosure: Bradford was long all the companies mentioned in this article at the time of publication.
$DDR and some other Glen Analysis $CHME $RINO $SKBI
to do list:
adl – just found this 10 seconds ago but i’m going to investigate it some more. looks promising at 1st glance.
cagc – their p/e is 6 and their latest powerpoint that i could find in 30 seconds looks like my MBA friends from IU made it (haha, kidding, but I have to start being funny or something to draw a crowd)… and their latest P/R was guidance of anything but $$$$ figures. so.. someone shoot me their estimates, but until then i’m not interested.
feec – dont have revenues, not interested, no clue why you’d own this. drop the c and add D and you have FEED. if that’s what you meant, sure. that thing will outperform the market in the next 5 years. just not by enough for me to get behind the bus and start singing “the wheels on the bus”
wirx – oh my. not interested, no clue what they do, dont care
snp – like 200% upside. will probably go up and outperform the market, but it’s not worth my time. it’s risky
CHVC – not for profit
dcpd – not big enough — too expensive
chme – good – update estimate chme http://cwf2076.chinaw3.com/ADTZ.aspx
skbi – add to sorter – huge potential here.
ESPH (if they do what they say they are going to do) will probably go x10 in the next 2 years (Just P/S=1 of their 2011 Estimates, but could go x20 if this thing really takes off), but I wouldn’t put my own money in this… it’s too speculative for my own money; especially with the other opportunities I see out there which are as large and less risky. http://wallstreetresources.net/pdf/fc/ESPH2.pdf
AEMD – Aethlon Medical Releases Shareholder Letter to Discuss The Treatment of Hepatitis-C Virus (HCV). That would be huge. Otherwise, I just wouldn’t buy. It lacks the two immediate requirements of revenues and net income.
rino – now uplisted
cpf – hawaiian bank, yuckie i thinkie
nrf – think its undervalued, but no clue for sure
rodm – nope
nsmg – lol, you want me to bet on hurricanes now? HHAAHHAHAH, No
DDR – came out with good news and confirmed that i still like them, i think they’ll be over $15 by the end of the year assuming that the markets dont crash again. but with $2 in dividends, ha, let’s be realistic and say even $1 in dividends, they are paying you to sit on your butt when they bring that sucker back. i’d say i could wait, but again, this is a stock for people that hate china. it seems like i have 2 sets of followers…
set A: I hate china, give me american companies
set b: I can deal with china, give me both
so ddr is set a and set b, but since i love china so much right now (practically giving me companies for free), i’m posting up with most of my money invested over there.
China: Drinking, Smoking, Building, and Nuclear $FXI $PGJ $CAEI $CNOA
China: Drinking, Smoking, Building, and Nuclear
By
Glen Bradford
Welcome to early adulthood. Now’s the time that if you don’t understand compounding interest rates or you’ve never heard of them, they’re really working against you. You may find yourself growing wider at about the rate you were growing taller when you were 12 and your portfolio is shrinking faster than your financial advisor forecasted under the worst case scenario. My ideas below aren’t your generic Chinese plays like the two popular ETFs by iShares (NYSE:FXI) and PowerShares (NYSE:PGJ). Still interested?
Look, I’m no Jim Rogers. Grass is always greener on the other side. Asians save more money. China never was in a recession and is and has been growing at twice the fastest rate we’ve seen over here in a couple years. They still make less than us per person. They want what we have. Rumors are that their new “more entitled” generation spends more. My advice: set up a trap so that their money is funneled your way. I’ve got 4 ideas that might appeal to the “sophisticated adult.”
1. Companies that are priced cheaper than the profits that they are going to make in the next year are growing harder and harder to find by the day. In China, sipping on Chardonnay imported from California is sure to give you a sophisticated buzz. Let’s round the bases. Cheap? Yes. Growing? Yes. Sophisticated? Yes. Homerun. China Organic Agriculture (OTC:CNOA).
2. Now that you’ve got your liquor, let’s get you a pack of smokes. These smokes aren’t your typical Philip Morris (NYSE:MO) western blend. You can’t get them yet, but their cactus-based cigarettes are slotted for launch later this year. They were awarded the patent last year heading into the market crash. China Kangtai (OTC: CKGT) has 3 years of steady growth, future growth under progress and is priced to shrink. No brainer? I think so.
3. How would you feel if you could snatch up a company capable of working projects in 7-star hotels, having just announced a new agreement worth $500M all for less than $100M? Oh, don’t forget that the backlog was $136M back in March. I’ll be honest, the buildings CAE (OTC:CAEI) builds are by far some of the most advanced I’ve come across in my lifetime — and I’m an engineer.
4. Now that we built it, we have to be able to turn the lights on. Interested in going nuclear? Trading less than $10M and being the only publicly traded Chinese company with the ability to produce nuclear graphite, China Carbon (OTC: CHGI) is your ticket to profits off of China’s target of 40 nuclear reactors by 2015. They just received a $5M purchase order and have been advised by their local government to apply for a $26M loan. Rumors suggest that they have already targeted a potential acquisition target that would double revenues and income.
I’ve been told that there are two main ways to accumulate large sums of money. You can make it, or you can save it. I always take shortcuts and was always a Chinese-cutter in grade school. Today is no different. My shortcut: Successful investing allows you to make money with your savings. Where I come
from, that necessitates not losing money. If you can take your savings, and successfully invest it, you can grow a small sum of money into a large sum of money. Sounds easy enough — now go give it a shot.
Disclosure: Bradford was long China Organic Agriculture, China Kangtai Cactus Bio-Tech, China Architectural Engineering, and China Carbon Graphite at the time of publication.
$C isn't that bad. You critics make me sick.
Well, they turned out a profit because they were able to sell their assets. They are building a larger reserve for future losses. My initial investing hypothesis included the willingness to hold and just sit on the stocks for a couple years.
There are a lot of people out there claiming that they understand what’s going on. I’m not that type of person. If I had to guess on this one, lets see.
Their shareholder equity is 154B and their market cap is 20B (Assume 25% dilution, cause I just feel like it right now).
K, let’s assume that citi is going to lose $10B each quarter for the next 8 quarters before turning profitable again (mid 2012). Remember, critics are complaining of a $5B loss.
Your upside to book value with these rough estimates is 200% return. So, is this a good value? Probably.
But, what the heck do I know. Disclosure: I think I’m long citi call options. Not sure. I bought a bunch of bank just out of the money call options back in late march. Needless to say, I should have just margined the heck out of my account. Options are also a function of volatility, and back then I paid a premium.
Glen
From: Scott Stefani
Sent: Sunday, July 19, 2009 11:06 PM
To: Bradford, Glen Richard
Subject: Thoughts on Citi
Hi Glen:
Hope you had a great weekend. I’m curious what your thoughts are for Citi’s future. You had recommended Citi a while back with your “mark-to-profit” write-up on CAPs and I’m curious where you stand after their 2nd Quarter results (which sounded pretty good to me, outside of their Retail Banking and Credit & Mortgage Losses).
I have about 5% of my money invested in Citi currently, and I’m wondering if I should lessen my exposure, since it’s future seems a little cloudy, and instead use that money to get more of your China Uplisting recommendations. I’d appreciate any advice you might be able to share. Thank you Glen.
Scott
$50-$100Million US Dollars Arbitrage Opportunity
I found a very large arbitrage opportunity. I need money to take advantage of it. Contact me. Thanks.
www.glenbradford.com
GeoBargains, GeoInvesting – They ask, I tell.
But first, a funny email from an IR company.
Very Funny Info for you,
Talked to my guy in Hawaii, Just hung up the phone with him like 15 seconds ago. Just started talking about you, did not mention your name, just said your strategy, he said OOH that’s Bradford, yea he is a genius and the reason I sound like him is because I get a lot of my ideas from him.
We laughed a little and talked about our stocks, he told me that you are a very good contact for me, and we should do a lot of good business together.
No wonder why he sounds like he has your investment ideas, he gets the ideas from you.
—————————————
Mr. Hawaii, buy my way out to hawaii and a surfboard and I’ll answer your investing questions!
I sort through the 20,000 stocks by hand, weeding out most of them in less than 10 seconds. That time should increase since google revamped their website. Basically, I start with large lists, here’s one for example. Now, only keep the top 10: GO!
http://www.otcbb.com/dynamic/tradingdata/download/allotcbb.txt
And I only keep the top 50 stocks worth mentioning after it’s all said and done. Basically, it’s a rolling process. You find a new stock, you compare it to what you already have, if it’s not as good, you move on. If it’s better, you toss the one out of your list and replace it, constantly updating a mental model.
I can do about 1,000 stocks a day. You can scan and sort all day long and build mathematical models, but they can’t do what a human brain does. I tried to build a mathematical model screener — don’t use it much anymore. MagicFormulaInvesting’s Gotham Capital pulled 40% annually using his screen and a bit of intuition.
There is only one challenge an investor faces, and that is not losing money. Most investors assume that they need to take large risks to get large rewards, or go mine for gold in caves when it’s paving the streets. That’s not the case. The goal is to perpetually make obvious decisions, and sometimes that may be no decision at all.
“What counts for most people in investing is not how much they know, but rather how realistically they define what they don’t know.”
Most people start with what they know. I start with what I don’t know, and then I start asking questions.
Honestly, surrounding yourself with 5-10 people like me is where I’m headed next. If each person contributes a top idea that doesn’t loose money and has upside 500%+ in the next 5 years, game over.
I guess my investing philosophy is like going to a ballpark where there are no strikes and trying to hit home runs.
Follow the greats, Peter Lynch’s PEG ratio, Graham’s P/B, Buffett’s P/E, and Fishers P/S. Good rules of thumb.
Glen
—–Original Message—–
From: Maj Soueidan [mailto:tradermaj1]
Sent: Tuesday, July 14, 2009 4:11 PM
To: Bradford, Glen Richard
Cc: kevin; zou
Subject: Re: SCLX
Their are two challenges an investor faces:
1) Navigating through 20k+ stocks in the market and narrowing that list down to a few that should be analyzed. This is where investors can use scans, highs, lows, filings etc. Investment opportunities present themselves in many venues. We like to leave no stone unturned.
2) Narrowing the list further to find “companies that make more money and are set to make more money than other companies should come with a higher price tag than other companies.” And i think you would agree that its not just about making more money.. Its also about relative valuations.
How do you compile your list of potential stocks?
Bradford, Glen Richard wrote:
> I agree with your focus on fundamental criteria. You pick better
> stocks than most, which is why I check in every once in a while to see
> what’s going on.
>
> I only have one method. My belief is that companies that make more
> money and are set to make more money than other companies should come
> with a higher price tag than other companies. Further, in instances
> where this does not hold true, a lot of money can be made.
>
> CHGI doesn’t appear to be around its 52-week high, fair enough.
>
> Congratulations on beating the average,
>
> Glen
>
> —–Original Message—–
> From: Maj Soueidan [mailto:tradermaj1
> Sent: Tuesday, July 14, 2009 3:40 PM
> To: Bradford, Glen Richard
> Cc: kevin; zou
> Subject: Re: SCLX
>
> Glen,
>
> Our company has many avenues of identifying promising growth stories.
> A
> 52 week high is one of ten “GeoBargain” criteria but not a necessity.
> The overriding factors are the fundamental criteria. If you will
> notice,
>
> the majority of the current stocks that we initiated as a GeoBargains
> were not near their highs, although they may be now. Our staff reads
> virtually every earnings press release, runs scans, interviews
> management and performs minor technical analysis to choose our stocks,
> a
>
> methodologies that has proved successful for over 20 years. Correct me
> if I am wrong, but CHGI is not at a 52 week high. Would you have sold
> TIS around $8 when it hit a new high?
>
> Whatever criteria we use, assessing fundamental statistics will always
> be the predominant method by which we isolate promising stocks. We
> also look at stocks attaining 3 and 6 months highs as a filtering
> process and code stocks that meet our special situation criteria which
> have nothing to with momentum.
>
> In a nutshell, there are many ways to skin a cat – new lows(value
> investing), new highs(momentum investing), or scans, but in the end it
> comes down to fundamentals no matter how one chooses to compile a wish
> list. I think what must be learned is to have an open mind and not be
> pigeon-holed into one method, a philosophy that has propelled us to
> above average returns in all but one year (2008). If you would like a
> further explanation on our investment philosophy as opposed to making
> assumptions we would be glad to speak with you. We would also be open
> to
>
> learn more about your investment philosophy.
>
> Maj
>
>
> Bradford, Glen Richard wrote:
>
>> Geoinvesting only invests in stocks near their 52-week high.
>>
>> If they could only learn to buy them on the other side, they could
>> catch the run from 52-week low to 52-week high.
>>
>> But sure, they end up hearing about most of the stocks I follow.
>> Usually an indicator for me to stop buying.
Pulling into Uplist City, China $RINO $MSFT $JNJ $CPSL $GSI
There are a lot of approaches that are going to work in a time like this. Ron Insana is right with his strategy of cutting the defensive plays and going on the offensive with a shotgun approach targeting bottom of the barrel giants. Cramer is right on China.
Resolved: the easiest way to become rich is to buy stakes in large companies years before they are large companies. Captain Obvious: If you bought Microsoft (MSFT) back around 1990 and held it for 10 years, you would have made 10,000%. Nobody ever recommends selling Microsoft, but you may notice from my disclosure that I don’t own it. Believe me, I’m not famous for recommending Johnson and Johnson (JNJ) as a sell around $70.
Sticking with the human lifecycle theme that I’ve been running with so far, there is a rather peculiar stage between when you are a young child to when you are considered a young adult. This is no different when it comes to companies, Chinese in particular. In humans this stage is called puberty. For companies, this stage is called uplisting. Uplisting is like going to college. It’s a required step to becoming available to more investors. What’s hitting the ground running? I’ll tell you.
Puda Coal (PUDC) recently has been beaten down from $5 in 2006 to $0.16 with the latest market crisis. That’s down 95% in price on improving business fundamentals! Puda Coal is reverse splitting 1 for 7 and reincorporating in Delaware in an effort to uplist and gain the attention of some investors that will take them as seriously as I do. Now they’re trading at $0.47, which is still absolutely ridiculously undervalued. Further note that the steel industry is taking off in China. While I’m on that topic, take a look at General Steel Holdings (GSI) and China Precision Steel (CPSL).
I hate talking about stocks that “popped” already, but Sino Clean Energy’s (SCLX) pop yesterday is more like pulling the choke on a chainsaw than pulling the plug on your vacuum cleaner. It’s looking to reverse split to uplist sometime in the next 180 days. Did I mention that they increased capacity by 250% and have a P/E of around 8? Investing isn’t rocket science, but this stock price should rocket — especially since they can increase capacity without expanding by another 185%.
Rino International (RINO) just hopped onto the Nasdaq. They also work in the steel industry where their business is focused on protecting the environment. China North East Petroleum (NEP) started trading on the Amex last month and proceeded to fall over 30%. Ouch! Again, P/E less than 5 and an organic growth of around 20%+.
A stock I mentioned last week, China Digital (CMTP) joined the uplisting train by reverse splitting 10 for 1 over the weekend and grabbed a new ticker symbol, changing from CHID to CMTP virtually overnight. Even though it’s up 50%, it’s still cheap. How many stocks do you own can you say that about?
All said, that’s only what’s been announced. Since June I’ve really been strapping myself into the Chinese uplisting rocket that appears to be taking a 1 way trip. The direction? Up. To me, it’s not a question of how fast, because I’m confident that over time, the speed at which these companies appreciate in price is going to be relatively faster than any index you could compare them to. The question, how high? Realistically, I don’t see these being the next Microsoft with 5 digit percent returns, but you won’t see me complaining over 3-4 digit percent returns anytime soon. My current long term picture is mostly dominated by 4 digit percent return opportunities.
Let’s break out the risk. For starters, I don’t see how people actually believe anything is truly efficient. In everyday life there are so many inefficiencies and perplexities in abundance for the naked eye to witness first hand. Stock prices are determined by whoever shows up on any given day and fluctuate wildly. It is my uncommon belief that I should only buy when I am sure that I can sell at a higher price. There are a lot of other people out there that are going to tell you that’s impossible. I’m not here to make friends.
Know the incentives of those you are listening to. Wall Streeters get paid if you trade stocks and pay for their advice. Journalists get paid if you buy their magazines or read their stories online. Mutual fund managers get paid the more money they can convince people to give them. Notice how none of these groups tend to get paid for their accuracy or their ability to keep you from losing money. And that, after all, is what really matters. Isn’t it?
Disclosure: Glen and his investors own Puda Coal, Sino Clean Energy, China North East Petroleum and China Digital. Glen and his investors also reserve the right to purchase General Steel Holdings, China Precision Steel, and Rino International.
Lots of No's
honorable mentions:
yuii – blah! not cheap enough, but honorable
egle – drybulk candidate
rino – now uplisted
cpf – hawaiian bank
egmi – going with ian cassel on this one, will likely make you money and beat the market.
to do:
yhgg – big potential pinkie, better than SIAF in my opinion, check the ihub boards, i’m posting updates, could be scamtastic
rino – will likely outperform the market and probably pull 200% in the next 2 years, not enough for me seeing other opportunities
jngw – hurting, check Q2 earnings
yhgg – Q2 check
pfap – q2 check
Nos:
SKBI – no http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=39465597
bnso – no http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=39465614
wpte – no http://www.newonlinecasinos.org/casinoarticles/428/1/589/Goldman-Sachs-Predicts-Online-Casinos-Will-Be-Legalized-In-US.html
rz – no way, not profitable, no revenues. but… good idea
rxii – nope no revenues
domk – nope
pdc – can’t say that i’m a fan
tto – huh? nope.
nrg – no
aig – can’t believe this thing is still alive. here’s what i don’t get. they lost 99 billion dollars and were starting with 95 billion in equity. and somehow they still have positive equity of 50 billion?
avp – nope
comv – nope
acfn – nope
pweb – nope
trtn – nope
smed – nope
trib – nope
lvs – nope
dgw – too expensive
hun – no
mgm – no
urre – no
eslr – no
ung – surfs up, no
bee – no
drl – no
CBTE – no
optimistic denial
behl – ha pump and dump, dump now, while it’s at $0.022
atfc – pink sheet dumper
added some shippers to my stock screener.
free, sblk, dac, osg, and ish — in that order are the order that i’d buy
cbeh – growth 11%, p/e of like 8. good deal, not a great deal
cpsl – not a huge fan, but steel is big in china, like GSI, sutr more, but that said, i guess they are increasing production http://www.chinaprecisionsteelinc.com/files/2-16-09_CPSL_Profile_FINAL.pdf
sutr- not a huge fan, but steel is big in china
gsi – way better than the above listed, look to the p/s ratio of these stocks for upside potential – ken fisher
cbte – not profitable
aib – buffett banks
ire – buffett banks
cntf- p/e is very expensive (based on what i’m looking at)
dgw – p/e of 34, for water treatment, looking for a cheaper water play
bcon – no way
chfr – HAHAHAHAAHAH HAHAHAHAH … HAHAHAHA no way
cagc – too expensive, but what is that 6 year agreement?
amne – already determined to be liquidation station, should have pulled a tim sykes and shorted the hell out of it last pop.
ifus – no.
wnbd – so, it takes the blue out of carpet? so what.
cypw – not profitable and very confusing reports
nyht – not a stock?
npws – hype + potential? i don’t care… waiting on this one., 5 days later, looks like the pump and dump i thought it was.
HGT – looks interesting, prolly an 8% yielder. Upside is $25, not enough for me
cdiv – pumped and dumped
uaua – my kind of stock price chart, not my kind of profitability
osg – looks appealingly cheap with high growth, will look deeper
ish – volatile stock price, buy below 18 and sell above 22 seems like a good gig … i might be doing it – did it with CAEI for a couple “20% in 3 day” pops
ddr – paying that 18% yield.
cpe – don’t like it.. huge headache, lots of analysis and conference calls listened to and completed. too much risk.
rino – growth of 30%,
chgi – Yeah it’s a pretty compelling story as they already have money making lines…and given the fact they’re the only company in China with the ability to produce “nuclear graphite”. The gov’t in China is currently building 40 nuclear reactors at 12 facilities throughout China by 2015. CHGI is the only publicly traded Chinese company with the technology to produce this type of graphite.
wemu – 100% growth this year, 30% into the future prolly, P/E of 9
cdbt – p/e of 1.1 with a growth of 30%, less than book value
China Real Estate Opportunities SA
(Public, LON:CREO)
ceua – 30% growth rate, p/e of 11, 2x book value, microcap for a couple years yet.
llfh – 25% growth rate, p/e of 8, 2.5x book value
niv – growth of 20%, P/E of 10
yhgg – big potential pinkie, better than SIAF in my opinion, check the ihub boards, i’m posting updates, could be scamtastic http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=39265847
rino – will likely outperform the market and probably pull 200% in the next 2 years, not enough for me seeing other opportunities
jngw – hurting, check Q2 earnings
yhgg – Q2 check
pfap – q2 check
$AHR $CNO My Thoughts
CNO:
I saw Steel Partners LP selling as well, you have to remember they were buying around $10 anyway. What do they know? Saw the guy stroll into the last CNO meeting first hand. I made sure not to talk to him. He got a round of applause, and welcomed to the board of directors.
Looks to me like insiders are mostly buying http://www.pinksheets.com/pink/quote/quote.jsp?symbol=cno#getInsiderTrans
http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=cno
Steel partners, as I recall, is still sitting on 10M shares. So, they cut down maybe 20% of their holdings. As an investor, I do that all the time if it’s my largest position. And, if I was them, looking at a lot of red and pressure from my investors because I bought at $10, and my investors just took huge losses last year and had the (GET ME THE *** OUT OF HERE) mentality… I just can’t really see much into it. I am fairly positive the company is going to put down positive EPS numbers 90% confident here.
AHR:
I am less confident in. They have a lot more CMBS risk outstanding, and their share price is whooped. That said, I’ve been accumulating as well. They were making money all but the 4th quarter of last year when they took ABSOLUTELY GINORMOUS writedowns. Then, they were profitable Q1, and I expect profitability Q2. After all, the market is settling since then.
As far as blackrock and anthracite go, Blackrock manages Anthracite. I didn’t really know they were buying or selling AHR.
I personally think AHR will be catching a break here in the next 3 months. Blackrock, it’s boss-man, is the “All American Quarterback”.
It’s caught headlines like:
BlackRock Inc., started 21 years ago in a one-room office by former mortgage-bond trader Laurence Fink, agreed to buy Barclays Plc’s investment unit for $13.5 billion to become the world’s largest money manager.
U.S. names 9 firms to manage program to sell banks’ toxic assets. Group includes BlackRock, Wellington Management and Invesco.
Blackrock is into: high yield commercial real estate loans. This is pretty much the Junk that everyone is freaking out about going down the pooper as far as I’m concerned.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/ShQKBEyAORI/AAAAAAAAFTM/03RNGrH9sEA/s1600-h/CreditSuisseResetMarch09.jpg
I sat down and thought about the whole situation. Interest rates in the united states are going to stay low, because if they don’t… this whole market will come tumbling down, and we’ll leg into depression. As far as looking forward go, things are getting better, now. Yes, they actually are. I’m not talking about things not getting worse. I’m talking about them getting better. Employment is a lagging indicator, and so are all the other things that wall street is covering. Oil prices and energy prices should come down and carry us into the winter. Natural gas is oversupplied, so is oil. Commodities are priced something along the lines of marginal utility. Oversupply means lower prices. Lower costs of operating for most businesses = larger profits, lower interest rates is good for banks. Inflation is not here. So, get out of my TBT play that I called in January. Inflation has never happened without home prices increasing in value — and that’s not going to happen anytime soon. All things considered, I’m sticking with AHR. I think that people are going to be hating on it until earnings come out along with blackrock giving them their own “stimulus package”. 60% confident here
But, good news! run the probabilities.
(10% confidence) * $8 + 0*90%= $0.80
Even with 10% probability, this thing is a money maker from this price level.
But, I don’t know anything. I’m just really lucky and I focus on not screwing up.
Hope this helps,
Glen
From: Scott Stefani
Sent: Wednesday, July 08, 2009 8:33 PM
To: Bradford, Glen Richard
Subject: Re: Glen Belated Independence Day Update
Glen:
I hope you had a Happy 4th. Your Toys ‘R Us write-up was awesome. I now own a sizeable position in just about all of your China stock recommendations (I really like MYST and CHID from your most recent article). I’m also biting my nails in hopes that AHR has a nice bounce soon, it’s definitely one of my more sizeable positions that I’ve continued to buy on the way down. You mentioned Blackrock buying back stock in AHR, but on Yahoo Finance, it shows them acquiring 38,834 shares, but then also dispositioning 107,291 shares. Can you elaborate on this at all?
Also, I was perusing the SEC website today, and happened to run across a filing from Conseco (CNO). It looks as if Steel Partners LP sold 2,737,300 shares of CNO … is this CNO buying back the shares or can you help explain what this means? Here’s a copy & paste from the website:
Transactions in the Shares During the Past 60 Days
Class of
Security Securities
(Sold)
Price ($) Date of
Sale
STEEL PARTNERS II, L.P.
Common Stock (504,518) 1.8322 06/25/09
Common Stock (325,000) 1.8738 06/25/09
Common Stock (1,464,100) 2.1691 06/26/09
Common Stock (16,493) 2.3500 06/29/09
Common Stock (427,192) 2.3857 06/30/09
I appreciate any insight you may be able to reveal. Thank you very much Glen and I wish you the best of luck with your Hedge Fund.
Scott