GlobalSpeculation.com
Because it does not make sense not to

Dean,

LFC
I had issues pulling data for LFC. I did find an article: http://biz.yahoo.com/zacks/081027/15517.html?.v=1

I couldn’t read their website either. I am not sure that I trust any of the numbers on this company. So, I really can’t form an opinion. But, based on the Zacks article and based on the reasons I can find in blogs as to why people are bullish. It looks like there is a lot of room to grow and they probably have a competitive advantage. I’m just not into it. I think compared to the rest of Chinese Stocks, it’s PE looks to be too high.

PTR
Revenues show a good rate of growth. Earnings per share have been falling. But — they made good in December 2006. Their last quarter was up 30% because of higher oil prices. I know that the Chinese government has been subsidizing oil prices for the past year cause they were so high. I think that at $80 a barrel, the government was covering the rest or something — unsure.

According to yahoo, both have little to no debt and are trading just above book value. I’ve been trying to stay out of areas in the economy that are getting a lot of publicity—the financials, auto, oil, banks, insurance.

Actually wait — I came across this website about 3 months ago.. and then I spent an hour going through my history to find it again.

http://chinabizfocus.com/modules/InvestChina/

http://chinabizfocus.com/modules/InvestChina/stockratios.php?sel=tradingideas&subsel=pe

To price Chinese companies, I take what I would pay for them in America and slash their price in half. Also, people aren’t paying for growth right now — so you can get it on the cheap. One of these days, companies that are priced at PE ratios of 0.50 and Price to book values of 0.50 will come back if they survive — and they’re growing. I’ve been looking for a few deals in Russia. If you can find a site that’s like this for Russian ADRs — send it my way.

Glen

From: Dean Davis
Sent: Thursday, November 06, 2008 1:42 PM
To: gbradfo
Subject: CDEC

Glen,

I appreciate the CDEC recommendation. Made a quick 32% gain in less than 4 days, but got out a little too early. Will get back in if it pulls back. I live by the idea that pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered.

I looked at one of your recommendations and really, really like YGE. What are your short term and long term thoughts on this one? I would really like to just buy and hold for 5-8 years.

I have been looking to put some huge blocks of money into both LFC and PTR. I like the markets in China also because of the huge growth potential, cheap labor and international exposure. These two companies are market leaders that have been beaten down. They have huge stockpiles of cash, huge YOY growth numbers, low PE’s, high EPS numbers, and pay good dividends to boot. Do you see any reason I should be leary in buying these two stocks?

BTW, you have provided better stock picks than any so called “professionals” I have used in the past. When you decide to start an investment service, I will be one of your first customers. I like the criteria you look for in determining a stocks potential.

Thanks!
Dean Davis
________________________________________
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Russia is down about 75% over the last 6 months.
Europe is down about 40% by rough guestimates over the same period.
Asia is down about 50% over the last year.
The Bovespa is down about 50% too.
The US market looks to be down about 40%. in the same period.

The supply and demand characteristics don’t apply to the stock market.
As the supply of stock stays pretty much constant — the prices are falling and the demand is falling.

I’m buying everything that I can. When’s the next time you’ll see a time like this?

It’s like seeing that really amazing girl for that first time — and knowing you’re going to marry her. This one’s mine.

CEDC is my favorite. i guaranteed it (i never do this.. this was a first) about a week ago. So far, so good., went from 20 to 30.. i sold all my CEDC stock and bought call options.

Anyway, Russia is down about 75% in the last 6 months. Lets get some ideas on the table. i’ll figure out more this weekend.

CEDC, RSX,

Russian Stocks Traded on the NYSE
Company
Symbol

Industry
Golden Telecom
GLDN
Telecommunications and Internet Services
Mobile Telesystems OJSC
MBT
Mobile Communications
Mechel Steel Group OAO
MTL
Steel Producer and Mining
Rostelecom OAO
ROS
Long Distance Telecommunication Services
Vimpel-Communications
VIP
Wireless Communication Services
Wimm-Bill-Dann Foods OJSC
WBD
Food Products

I am buying YGE, MTW and AOB calls tomorrow morning.

Greg

I bought the calls at an average price of $6, they’re at about $9-11 now.

Anyway, tomorrow I’m buying calls on MTW and AOB. CEDC is still the way to go if you’re going to choose one I think. If you’re playing GHII put a limit buy order in at $0.11 or less and pray you catch it soon, cause their CFO is going to go promote them at some banquet where a bunch of small companies go.

Making rules you refuse to deviate from eliminates opportunities that come once a lifetime. That said, I broke rules these last three months that cost me a lot of money — oh well.

Historically, the market goes up in oct/nov/dec of election year. I have no idea what will happen. I just play odds and buy stocks that are cheap relative to the market. Also, I think that by January 2010 — I hope to be out of the woods as far as the ‘recession’ goes.

Glen

From: tubertini
Sent: Tuesday, November 04, 2008 7:38 PM
To: Bradford, Glen Richard
Subject: Re: one stock

Unfortunately, options is not an area where I have a lot of knowledge. However, I plan on purchasing shares of GHII sometime this week. I wanted to do a little more research and also wait and see the reaction after the election although I may risk a significant move up.

I see that you bought the Jan 2010 calls of CEDC at $30. What price are they at now? Also, the market has moved up significantly over the past few days. What are your thoughts on what may happen through the rest of the year. I was actually hoping for a pull back so that I can pick up some of the stocks I have been looking at for a lower price.

In addition, the one thing I struggle with is adhering to a set of metrics to make my investment decisions. Do you have a specific set of metrics that you rely on and do not deviate from? Do you use some type of spread sheet to perform your analysis on.

Sorry for all the questions seeing that you are the one that was emailing me the question to begin with.

Thanks.

Greg T

From: Bradford, Glen Richard
Sent: Sunday, November 02, 2008 2:35 PM
To: Rebecca
Subject: RE: Stockpickr article

Just got your message. They’ve been sorted into my junk mail until now. It’s hard to find companies that are so bad that they’re not worth owning in this kind of environment with everything down as much as it is. The trick though, is sorting out the absolutely crazy bargains with enough people watching the company to show signs of a rebound and ride the rebound. These are definitely 5 companies that I wouldn’t own. The only reason that I can think of owning them is because you believe that the worst is over and there’s a lot of growth potential. My initial focus is to not lose money. Buying companies that are losing money and owe a lot of their assets to creditors is irrational to me unless there’s a thunderous upside.

Warren Buffett’s advice in this market is to buy American stocks. Sometimes when I’m researching potential investments I come across such duds that I have to ask: “How are you even in business?” [Examples? We could use some more tickers in this story, so if you have any other stocks in mind, we could just mention them briefly--their names and maybe a quick reason why you don't like them.] CKEC, CPY, HTC, THC, SVVS
In this market — and one could argue that this is always true — every investment you make runs the risk of losing you money. Some, though, almost guarantee it. Some people believe that to reap the greatest rewards in life, you have to take the highest risks. But does that mean jumping off the highest cliff or trying to make it across the tracks in front of the fastest train? To me, risk is uncertainty. The higher the cliff and the closer the train — the lower the risk because you’re certainly dead.
Here are two excessively leveraged companies (which happen to have similar tickers) that I think you should stay far away from. When a company is leveraged in debt as much as these two going into a global recessionary environment — I say, bon voyage. Leveraging up is best done in times like this, where interest rates are dropping to historic lows and these companies are at a disadvantage to say the least.
[I think this intro needs more. It sets up that "American" is going to be the key ingredient to the article--which it is not. Why did you really decide to put these two stocks in an article together? Did it have anything to do with Buffett? What is similar about them? Why are they linked in your mind?
Also, why only two companies? It doesn't make much of an article--suggests that the thesis isn't strong enough to support more than two companies. Are these just two random companies that you don't like, so we're creating an article around that? Or are there more-compelling reasons for it?] A: To find these companies, I come across balance sheets and income statements that look pretty terrible. There’s no real link except that when Buffett says it’s time to buy, what he means is that it’s time to buy companies that are proven and consistent and reliable and priced to perform far below what they are likely to perform.
Tenet Health Care (THC) is an investor-owned health-care-services company. The last time that it announced it was closing a hospital, its stock price went up. [I'm not exactly sure what this means about the company. Is this a bad thing or good, and why? A: This is just something worth mentioning. It’s not positive.] The question I ask when I look at THC is: If Americans are struggling to pay their mortgage payments, will they be able to pay their hospital bills?
I suppose you could play this one the way people were playing some African-related stocks awhile back: Things can’t get any worse, so they have to go up from here. But I think THC’s going to close up shop. [This means shut down, right? A:Yes] The best part [is this sarcastic? A: Yes] is the earnings upside. Even if earnings come through at 12 cents this next year, that’s still a P/E of more than 30. [Are you interpreting this as good or not? A: This is terrible] Also, analysts have it underperforming its industry. [This is bad, right? A: Yes, terrible] Sounds like Doogie Howser is still in business. [That's good? I'm not sure I understand. A: The idea was to relate that Doogie Howser’s TV show doesn’t’ exist anymore --- and THC is on the same chopping block]
Hungarian Telephone and Cable (HTC) is a telecommunications provider operating in Hungary.
OK! You caught me red handed. It’s not a U.S. stock. [So why did you choose to include it in this particular article? This goes back to the fact that I think the intro could be stronger.] But even Buffett’s drawn some stocks into his portfolio from outside the U.S. [I'd love some examples here and maybe even what you think of them--just briefly! A: Buffett bought a stake in BYD --- a Chinese company that plans to sell electric cars in America by 2010. In my opinion, he overlooked HOGS “Zhongpin Inc.” and several other Chinese companies. Buffett bought BYD because he sees a company with good management and huge growth opportunity on the cheap.] This isn’t one of them.
HTC is panicking. [Why? Anything news-related? A: They’re updating investors on their strategy. TDC tried to sell HTC but backed out.] Revenue is up, but the company is operating at a -25% profit margin. A current ratio of less than 1 indicates that THC is likely paying its bills strictly by taking out longer-term loans. I can’t read its Web site (it’s in Hungarian), but its business summary sounds mostly landline. [Where did you find this if not on the Web site? How have you done your research? A: company profiles/investment blogs/just sifting through lots of company statements and investor opinions --- sometimes I find great companies at bargain prices --- sometimes I find companies that should be closed.] HTC’s offerings include voicemail, fax, dial-up, ISDN and DSL.Where’s the high-speed Internet and cell phone service?
No, I think I’ll stick with companies that have proven track records and that know how to make money. [Again, partly because we need more tickers, some examples would be great.] Benjamin Graham [a little strange to start with Buffett and end with Graham--maybe we should just start with Graham? Again, where is the focus? A: Graham was Buffett’s teacher. I think they’re pretty much the same minus the fact that Buffett believes in finding good predictable companies, and only buying them when their Graham valuations become reasonable. Graham felt it was best to own a variety of the “cheap companies”] calls it the difference between investing and speculating. And I’m an investor. [I wasn't quit sure where "You decide" came from--the article really hasn't been about a choice you're encouraging people to make. If we pulled the Graham thing into the beginning, maybe we could make that work? A: There’s all sorts of investment heroes to choose from --- Lynch, Buffett, Graham, Piotroski, Zweig, Livermore, O’Neil … Maybe I should do an article that features a stock from each strategy?].

From: Rebecca
Sent: Wednesday, October 22, 2008 5:20 PM
To: gbradfor
Subject: Stockpickr article

Hi Glen:

My name is Rebecca, and I’m the one who edits your articles for TSC and Stockpickr and puts them up on the sites. Dan has sent me something you’ve written about THC and HTC, and I have a few questions about it. I’ve tweaked it a bit and then put my queries in brackets throughout the text. Could you look it over and see what you can do? The sooner the better, because Dan would like to put this up tomorrow morning, but I understand if you need more time. Just let me know.

In general, I’m not really sure what the premise for this article is. I talk about that a little in my queries, but if it’s not clear what I mean, let me know.

Excuse, me, too, if any of my queries seem strange or like I’m missing the point. I actually read this
through the first time thinking you were recommending these companies (I didn’t catch the sarcasm in “doing a great job of it”), so that caused a little confusion. There are some questions, though, about whether points you make are meant to be positives or negatives. I think in these cases some extra explanation would be helpful. Rather than just mentioned a number or fact, explain what it means (particularly what it means to you). How are you interpreting a P/E of 30, for example?

Thanks so much!

Rebecca

Warren Buffett’s advice in this market is to buy American stocks. But obviously, just because a company is based in the U.S. doesn’t make it a sound investment. Sometimes when I’m researching potential investments I come across such duds that I have to ask: “How are you even in business?” [Examples? We could use some more tickers in this story, so if you have any other stocks in mind, we could just mention them briefly--their names and maybe a quick reason why you don't like them.]
In this market — and one could argue that this is always true — every investment you make runs the risk of losing you money. Some, though, almost guarantee it. Some people believe that to reap the greatest rewards in life, you have to take the highest risks. But does that mean jumping off the highest cliff or trying to make it across the tracks in front of the fastest train?
Here are two excessively leveraged companies (which happen to have similar tickers) that I think you should stay far away from.
[I think this intro needs more. It sets up that "American" is going to be the key ingredient to the article--which it is not. Why did you really decide to put these two stocks in an article together? Did it have anything to do with Buffett? What is similar about them? Why are they linked in your mind?
Also, why only two companies? It doesn't make much of an article--suggests that the thesis isn't strong enough to support more than two companies. Are these just two random companies that you don't like, so we're creating an article around that? Or are there more-compelling reasons for it?]
Tenet Health Care (THC) is an investor-owned health-care-services company. The last time that it announced it was closing a hospital, its stock price went up. [I'm not exactly sure what this means about the company. Is this a bad thing or good, and why?] The question I ask when I look at THC is: If Americans are struggling to pay their mortgage payments, will they be able to pay their hospital bills?
I suppose you could play this one the way people were playing some African-related stocks awhile back: Things can’t get any worse, so they have to go up from here. But I think THC’s going to close up shop. [This means shut down, right?] The best part [is this sarcastic?] is the earnings upside. Even if earnings come through at 12 cents this next year, that’s still a P/E of more than 30. [Are you interpreting this as good or not?] Also, analysts have it underperforming its industry. [This is bad, right?] Sounds like Doogie Howser is still in business. [That's good? I'm not sure I understand.]
Hungarian Telephone and Cable (HTC) is a telecommunications provider operating in Hungary.
OK! You caught me red handed. It’s not a U.S. stock. [So why did you choose to include it in this particular article? This goes back to the fact that I think the intro could be stronger.] But even Buffett’s drawn some stocks into his portfolio from outside the U.S. [I'd love some examples here and maybe even what you think of them--just briefly!] This isn’t one of them.
HTC is panicking. [Why? Anything news-related?] Revenue is up, but the company is operating at a -25% profit margin. A current ratio of less than 1 indicates that THC is likely paying its bills strictly by taking out longer-term loans. I can’t read its Web site (it’s in Hungarian), but its business summary sounds mostly landline. [Where did you find this if not on the Web site? How have you done your research?] HTC’s offerings include voicemail, fax, dial-up, ISDN and DSL.Where’s the high-speed Internet and cell phone service?
No, I think I’ll stick with companies that have proven track records and that know how to make money. [Again, partly because we need more tickers, some examples would be great.] Benjamin Graham [a little strange to start with Buffett and end with Graham--maybe we should just start with Graham? Again, where is the focus?] calls it the difference between investing and speculating. And I’m an investor. [I wasn't quit sure where "You decide" came from--the article really hasn't been about a choice you're encouraging people to make. If we pulled the Graham thing into the beginning, maybe we could make that work?]

Rebecca

Looking at the numbers, I started with a net input of about $89K I rode that up about 20% — and then recieved knock out blows into and through “Black October.” I cut out my Trailing stops and rode my portfolio down to $55K (down 40% from the start and probably down about 50% from the peak). Throughout the whole thing, I shifted assets into my positions that were plummeting the fastest — and I began buying January 2010 Calls in the accounts that I could when my dad and friends were telling me I was an idiot. That’s what I’ve been doing. If I wasn’t playing with college money and my investors accounts were set up to margin and buy calls, I’d have leveraged up more — for better or worse.

“Shoulda-Coulda-Woulda” — That’s the call of wussies. At least I actually did it.

Now that I have experienced this kind of drop first hand… I plan on actually selling stocks when there’s lots of negative outlook and monster selloffs early on… and waiting for better prices — even for ridiculously undervalued priced stocks like mine.

china solar looks really hot right now. i don’t have the time to look through and analyze them all right now — unfortunately. i’m definately interested.

barak obama won the election. (this is the night before) – sorry mccain.

Ticker Time last high low Price % Change
SOLF 4:00pm 8.24 6.10 4.68 +81.09%
YGE 4:02pm 6.26 5.27 4.21 +70.10%
LDK 4:01pm 22.41 18.19 15.86 +52.55%
STP 4:00pm 17.82 17.50 13.25 +49.12%
JASO 4:00pm 5.65 4.82 4.12 +47.90%
CSIQ 4:00pm 10.90 9.86 8.60 +38.85%
CSUN 4:00pm 4.57 3.77 3.45 +34.01%
TSL 4:02pm 13.18 10.50 10.20 +31.93%

Dario,

Yahoo is priced to grow at 11.5% by my calculations. I know they have had deals with Microsoft and Google and neither have worked as far as I know. It’s been growing revenues at 6% to 8% and earnings growth is also questionable. Everyone knows google’s a better search engine. I’d rather own the best in class. There is a PE ratio discrepancy of about 22 to 19. That’s no question. Unless you know about some deal that Yahoo’s got up it’s sleave. Owning it and not google at this point in time is in my opinion like paying the same price for a moped when you could get a BMW. But, hell, if gas mileage turns you on. Go for it.

I don’t know anything about banks. I figure, I’d rather not try and read financial statements that are produced by banks (the institutions that in my opinion can manipulate them the most). JPM has a PE of about 18. It’s priced to grow at 11%. I have no idea. Well, finally: “(JPM) has just announced it will be making changes to about $110 billion in mortgages to help its borrowers” That’s good news.

I have other companies that I’d rather own. 1 Year targets are stupid, but analysts set them. There’s all sorts of bad measurements out there. That said, I reference them each time before I buy.

All things considered, I don’t own either.

Glen

From: Dario Visnjic
Sent: Friday, October 31, 2008 2:39 PM
To: gbradfor
Subject: Stocks

Hey

I have some shares of JPM, and yahoo is showing that its 1-Year Target is like 46. Does that mean I should sell at $46 or what. Also when do you think I should sell JPM?

Thanks