GlobalSpeculation.com
Bargain hunting for the sport

Well the shorts prefer shorting c

http://shortsqueeze.com/?symbol=c&submit=Short+Quote%99

insider transactions look better with c

http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=c&ta=1&p=d

mutual funds prefer etfc

http://www.thebuylist.com/default.aspx?Stock=etfc

etfc’s technicals are stronger

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=etfc&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p04446711432

consensus.. Citigroup is more risky! Surprise!!!!

So, if we think that citi will survive this, we will make more money, especially In the short term, because this thing is set to be a short squeeze rocket.

What do we know about Citi?

http://money.cnn.com/2009/03/10/news/companies/citi_profitable.reut/
1. It was profitable or claims to be profitable in the first 2 months of 2009.
2. Mark-to-profit accounting
3. Selling less than book value $13
4. Selling at a P/E of less than 2 according to historical earnings
5. Other banks are putting down record numbers, citi is set to follow suit on Friday. That’s my take.

I’ll stick with citi because there is tremendous upside on Friday. I think the risk is limited due to the first 2 points and the last point.

http://finance.google.com/group/google.finance.662713/browse_thread/thread/8b63f678f81ce445

Hope this helps,
Glen

From: Andy C
Sent: Wednesday, April 15, 2009 2:51 PM
To: Bradford, Glen Richard
Subject: Re: C or ETFC?

Thanks for the response. I’m not really that familiar with what ETFC has done lately but I noticed they had a loss in 2007 larger than in 2008, which seemed a little odd to me considering the economic conditions. I’m fairly diversified (at least long term) but I recognize there’s some money to be made short-term in the financial sector right now. I saw you recommended FAS, but the way people play that stock and FAZ makes me a little nervous because I’m not completely familiar with how it all works. I’m fine with risk, but only when I know what I’m getting into .

I put an order in for a small amount of C but I don’t know if it will be filled today at all. Still very interested to hear what you find on ETFC vs C!

Thanks,
Andy
On Wed, Apr 15, 2009 at 2:17 PM, Bradford, Glen Richard wrote:
Food for thought:

In situations like this, where it’s hard to know exactly what’s going on… the best bet is to diversify.

My big bank bets mostly are along the lines of the earnings they have done in 2006 and how I understand they’ve reacted over the past 2 years aka taken precautionary measures, government bailouts, etc.

I’ll take a deeper look at ETFC vs C tonight

From: Andy C
Sent: Wedn
Subject: C or ETFC?

Glen,
What do you think of ETFC right now? They seem pretty undervalued. I have some money to put in today and I’m trying to decide between ETFC or C, with earnings coming out soon for both of them. I originally had a position in C that I sold at 3.75 so I’m a little hesitant to get back in around that price again, since I know there’s a bigger downside to be had. Does it come down to ‘ETFC = safer’?

Thanks,

Andy

Allow me to start off by illustrating my sentiment from January 2008 – February 2009: I hate banks and I have no idea what they are doing. I hate anything financially related.

But, I find myself not hating banks anymore. What happened? I’ve got 8 leading indicators that people might be aware of but aren’t catching headlines like they should be and I’ve got 4 monster catalysts. What do I know, I’m only the Motley Fool’s Hottest Player going into Easter Weekend. Further, My entire college tuition is riding on the stock market.

Leading Indicators:

1. Federal Funds Target Rate is nil. This means that banks can borrow as cheaply as they ever have been able to. When you borrow at these interest rates, the net present value of any opportunity where you can at least get your money back is a good one to be taking.
2. Banks as a sector cheap from a historical perspective. I wonder why? Fear, panic, disorder, lack of trust, lack of speculation — just a few ideas.
3. There is tons of cash on the sidelines. Blood is in the streets. There has definitely been “the slaughtering of the speculator” over the past year and a half. I believe now is the time when the speculator finally gets congratulated.
4. We are up 28% off the bottom according to the S&P500.
5. Global Markets are leading the way. They are up 53.4% according to EEM [iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (ETF)].
6. My uncle who is a banker panicked and sold out of the market at Dow 6700.
7. Mark-to-market has been relaxed to ‘mark-to-whatever-makes-us-look-good.’ Aka: Mark-To-Profit.
8. The uptick rule might come back. In my opinion, this isn’t necessary at this point.

Monster Catalysts:
1. Citigroup and Bank of America said they were profitable in the first 2 months of 2009. Great! Now they can do whatever they want to their balance sheet with the relaxation of mark-to-market. What does that imply? How can you lose money when you get to put whatever you want on a balance sheet? Especially if you’re a bank and you thoroughly understand how to crunch numbers and make them look favorable, you’re going to be looking really good now. It’s the Enron dilemma of “mark-to-model.” I could come up with some great spreadsheet models that make me look like an undervalued opportunity.
2. It’s already happening! Wells-Fargo is coming in crushing analysts. Well, of course! What do you expect when you can borrow money to invest in opportunities and you’re not paying a significant interest rate on what you borrow?
3. Analysts are going to get caught with their pants down this week. Earnings are coming out. Tuesday: Goldman Sachs; Thursday: JPMorgan Chase; Friday: Citigroup. There is so much upside that they simply can’t see because they don’t really understand what’s going on. If they did, they wouldn’t be analysts. They’d be retired. What does this do? This sets up an opportunity for some huge price target upgrades, usually after the price actually appreciates to that target. Have you noticed that analyst price targets seem to be a lagging indicator of stock prices — or is it just me?
4. Debt upgrades. Once Mark-To-Profit kicks into full swing, the ratings agencies have to think a little more highly of these poor banks.

How to play this one:

I like a couple insurance agencies in decreasing order: CNO, GNW, PNX. I think GNW didn’t need the TARP anyway. That’s a sign of strength. Am I the only one seeing this?

I like a couple bank plays, also in decreasing order: FAS, C, BAC. I’m not into the Wells-Fargo’s and the Goldman Sach’s or even JP Morgan’s of the world — where is the upside there? 100%? Not enough.

Disclosure: Glen Bradford owns CNO, GNW, PNX, FAS, C, BAC and/or options on them in his and his investor’s accounts.

Allow me to start off by illustrating my sentiment from January 2008 – February 2009: I hate banks and I have no idea what they are doing. I hate anything financially related.

But, I find myself not hating banks anymore. What happened? I’ve got 8 leading indicators that people might be aware of but aren’t catching headlines like they should be and I’ve got 4 monster catalysts. What do I know, I’m only the Motley Fool’s Hottest Player going into Easter Weekend. Further, My entire college tuition is riding on the stock market.

Leading Indicators:

1. Federal Funds Target Rate is nil. This means that banks can borrow as cheaply as they ever have been able to. When you borrow at these interest rates, the net present value of any opportunity where you can at least get your money back is a good one to be taking.
2. Banks as a sector cheap from a historical perspective. I wonder why? Fear, panic, disorder, lack of trust, lack of speculation — just a few ideas.
3. There is tons of cash on the sidelines. Blood is in the streets. There has definitely been “the slaughtering of the speculator” over the past year and a half. I believe now is the time when the speculator finally gets congratulated.
4. We are up 28% off the bottom according to the S&P500.
5. Global Markets are leading the way. They are up 53.4% according to EEM [iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (ETF)].
6. My uncle who is a banker panicked and sold out of the market at Dow 6700.
7. Mark-to-market has been relaxed to ‘mark-to-whatever-makes-us-look-good.’
8. The uptick rule might come back. In my opinion, this isn’t necessary at this point.

Monster Catalysts:
1. Citigroup and Bank of America said they were profitable in the first 2 months of 2009. Great! Now they can do whatever they want to their balance sheet with the relaxation of mark-to-market. What does that imply? How can you lose money when you get to put whatever you want on a balance sheet? Especially if you’re a bank and you thoroughly understand how to crunch numbers and make them look favorable, you’re going to be looking really good now. It’s the Enron dilemma of “mark-to-model.” I could come up with some great spreadsheet models that make me look like an undervalued opportunity.
2. It’s already happening! Wells-Fargo is coming in crushing analysts. Well, of course! What do you expect when you can borrow money to invest in opportunities and you’re not paying a significant interest rate on what you borrow?
3. Analysts are going to get caught with their pants down this week. Earnings are coming out. Tuesday: Goldman Sachs; Thursday: JPMorgan Chase; Friday: Citigroup. There is so much upside that they simply can’t see because they don’t really understand what’s going on. If they did, they wouldn’t be analysts. They’d be retired. What does this do? This sets up an opportunity for some huge price target upgrades, usually after the price actually appreciates to that target. Have you noticed that analyst price targets seem to be a lagging indicator of stock prices — or is it just me?
4. Debt upgrades. Once ‘mark-to-whatever-makes-us-look-good’ kicks into gear, the ratings agencies have to think a little more highly of these poor banks.

How to play this one:

I like a couple insurance agencies in decreasing order: CNO, GNW, PNX. I think GNW didn’t need the TARP anyway. That’s a sign of strength. Am I the only one seeing this?

I like a couple bank plays, also in decreasing order: FAS, C, BAC. I’m not into the Wells-Fargo’s and the Goldman Sach’s or even JP Morgan’s of the world — where is the upside there? 100%? Not enough.

Disclosure: Glen Bradford owns CNO, GNW, PNX, FAS, C, BAC and/or options on them in his and his investor’s accounts.

For those of you who passed simple math, 2+2=4

For those of you who understand a successful merger/acquisition, the goal is the combination of the two companies to yield more than their separate parts, essentially 2+2=5

Anyway, what you saw in Wells Fargo is going to happen over the next 5 weeks to the entire banking sector as well. If you cut the rate at which banks borrow to finance their loans, that increases their profit margin. Expect either a blockbuster quarter or a write off, but the blockbuster is more likely in my opinion.

Get ready to either be positioned in these stocks or miss the boat.

Tuesday: Goldman Sachs

Thursday: JPMorgan Chase

Friday: Citigroup reports

Where is the play? FAS. Further, I like Citigroup over JPM and GS, cause — it has the most upside.

If I owned AIG, I’d sell out at $5 if it ever gets that high. The old CEO laughed at management’s decisions since he left, go figure. Pass the blame.

If you’re into insurance, GNW, PNX, and CNO are the ones I’m riding.

Tom,

Looking through HERO. CNEH in my opinion is just a better deal. No reason to screw around with HERO since it’s still losing money and it’s contracts are up in the air. I don’t think this rebound is going to send OIL above $60 in the short term (long term is another deal), not to mention July of 2008 and the surrounding 5 months caused a lot of people to start drilling their own oil. Supply is going to be huge. CNEH is intelligent, but I’m just not feeling HERO. Rule #1: Don’t lose money. I don’t want to take risks to make huge gains.

Not big on IO either. I think this one is a turn-around play and will probably turn back to huge profits in a year or two, but not a play right now. Their 2009 projections don’t look very pleasant. If they’re not optimistic, I’m not either. Oil can be bought cheaper at wall street than it costs to go find it and harvest it.

Glen

From: Tom Anthony [mail
Sent: Thursday, April 09, 2009 8:58 PM
To: Bradford, Glen Richard
Subject: Re: KHD

Thanks for the response, Glen. Yeah, ORS shot up and then fell pretty hard…glad to hear you got out when you did. I never made a position, I just never really felt confident with it.

Bought into CNEH the other day when it hit 1.35. Another one i’ve been watching is Hero – I know its not a China stock, so I’m not sure how interested you are – but its over 95% off of its 52 week high. Their earnings are at the end of the month. I bought into IO about a month ago and I’m thinking that Hero may have more upside potential, even though it looks like I may have missed its bottom… but I need to get a better understanding of them. I think IO is a pretty good investment with potential but maybe not as much as Hero. I dunno yet, but you may want to give it a looksee.

Anyways, like i said before, I enjoy reading your site… and I’m not ashamed at all of cherry picking CNO from you. hahaha.

Tom

On Wed, Apr 8, 2009 at 1:17 AM, Bradford, Glen Richard wrote:
Blog Wars Transcript:
Hey Glen – are you in this for the long haul or did you get out at the bounce yesterday?

Are you still bullish on ORS?

Thanks,
Tom A
5:20 PM

Glen Bradford said…
Tom,

I sold ORS at $1.04, something like 200% profit.

I am not a big fan of their A/R being something like 200 days of sales and increasing.

I’m hesitant until this thing gets cheaper or reports better A/R turnover. I’m familiar with the MCI swindles of the 1995 era. This could be similar. I have no idea; happy speculation.

Glen

From: Tom Anthony
Sent: Thursday, April 02, 2009 11:39 AM

To: Bradford, Glen Richard
Subject: Re: KHD

Haha. I don’t think I can ever fault a guy for going out and having a few drinks…or more. I’ve been out of school for going on 4 years now – I definitely miss the random Tues/Wed nights out.

CNEH – their earnings report on Monday was pretty impressive. I really like oil and I have wanted to get exposure to oil in China.

They’ve been granted another year and half time to get listed on a major exchange. This may be a good time to pick them up before they list. They amended the terms in early March for listing.

In 04 when they changed to CNEH they had I think around 20 wells and planned to have 102 more wells completed in 4 years. From their recent earnings, it shows they have 219 operating wells – I would have to see that as a big positive.

I’m not sure of all the specifics with their PTR agreement, but for the first 10 years PTR gets 20% of their production and that jumps up to 40% in 2013. I’m not entirely sure how that will affect them in 5 years, but for the next five years its 20% of their production that PTR takes per their exclusive agreement and they have obviously been growing extremely well – 08 was a huge year for them.

They are not too far off their lows and their growth does seem pretty enticing. I haven’t decided if I’m going to create a position at all – most of my money that I’ve planned to invest is already invested in the market and every month I try to add to it – I need to make sure this is a better play than something else. Let me know your thoughts.

Thanks – Tom

On Thu, Apr 2, 2009 at 10:25 AM, Bradford, Glen Richard > wrote:
Tom,

I’ve been looking into it. Looks like a cash / accounts receivable problem.

Same thing with ORS.

Take a peek at CNEH.

I will be digging deeper though. I went out last night instead of sorting through company information.

Glen

From: Tom Anthony
Sent: Wednesday, April 01, 2009 7:33 PM

To: Bradford, Glen Richard
Subject: Re: KHD

Hey Glen,

I read your article about CNO awhile back and just wanted to say thanks for bringing that opportunity to my attention.

I was wondering what your thoughts were on Asia Time Corp if you’ve looked at that stock at all. They had their IPO early 2008 which started out well for them but they are over 90% off their highs with a PE around .6. Obviously they don’t have a lot of history though. Their last financials showed them with a good amount of cash on hand. I’m still waiting for earnings to come out. The same thing is going on with ORS – no earnings. I figured they would be out this week, but that hasn’t happened yet. I know awhile back you were interested in ORS – are you still? Anyways, I enjoy reading your stuff – thanks.

Tom

I’m dumping XIN ASAP. I’m finding other opportunities that are significantly better. XIN is still a great company and will probably appreciate in price…

But, like most of my articles indicate: I will always drop a great deal if I find a better one. Right now, you can find growing companies with P/E < 2. That’s huge.

Just be glad you’re investing in china. It’s set to do significantly better than the US markets. The shanghai is already up about 27% so far this year, not to mention that it’s up more than that from its bottom.

I don’t plan on writing articles on the absolutely unbelievable deals I’m finding. I plan on putting them on my blog and trying to pick up a few more individual investors. When I feel that I’m personally invested enough, that’s when I’m going to take my ideas public again. I see no reason to tell other people about hidden gold when I am not set to profit from it.

Glen

From: Tom Anthony
Sent: Saturday, February 14, 2009 3:26 PM
To: Bradford, Glen Richard
Subject: Re: KHD

Thanks for getting back to me, Glen – I do appreciate it. My one concern with KHD was their ability to grow, but throw in the China stimulus and their cash on hand and I thought it deserved more research.

I’ve read through your blog and completely agree on XIN, I picked up some shares back when it was below 2 bucks. I don’t know much about GHII, but will definitely do some more digging on it.

Thanks again, Glen

Tom
On Fri, Feb 13, 2009 at 8:39 PM, Bradford, Glen Richard Tom,

I was looking through their investor presentation. It looks like it may be cheap for a reason. The industry appears to be cyclical.

I think that there is probably more downside. That’s my best guess. I would rather bet on companies that are going to grow in these hard times and are equally cheap.

Glen

From: Tom Anthony
Sent: Friday, February 13, 2009 10:58 AM
To: gbra
Subject: KHD

Hey Glen – I came across your blog the other night as I was researching AOB when I sa
w it at under 4.80. You seem pretty bullish on most things China and I’d like to get your opinion on KHD. It seems like every other value / bargain screen pops this one out. I’m trying to come out with a reason why this wouldn’t be a good stock to get into, it seems that with its cash > market cap its a no brainer. What do you think?

Thanks,

Tom A.

————————————————————————

Tom,

I agree with your analysis on CPX. I’m leaving this one alone. I don’t see oil prices booming — but CPX is likely to outperform the market — just not enough for me to consider worth my time for this risk level.

COP — not enough upside to be worth my time.

GCI — probably going to $8, don’t see it going up past $20. The internet is awesome. I don’t invest in short term long term ideas. I need a long term idea.

HERO — see above.

MGM — sounds like a gamble. I’ll pass. I’m risk averse. We didn’t miss the boat. There is more upside, and then… there’s some downside… serious downside.

ZLC — I prefer Blue Nile to Zales, but let’s take a peek. I think it’s cheap for a reason, or at least analysts do. I don’t want any diamonds. I don’t understand why people pay so much for them.

SKS — I shop there but I don’t buy anything. I’m not a huge fan right now. There is upside though. Probably an easy double. I just don’t like playing games with companies in a rut.

From: tcors [mailt On Behalf Of Tom Corson-Knowles
Sent: Thursday, April 09, 2009 9:18 PM
To: Bradford, Glen Richard
Subject: Re: Real Stocks for Real Investors

Hey,

CPX looks decent. It has strong cash flow, strong balance sheet, and is earning about $150 M+, so it’s effectively trading at 2-3x earnings. However, it’s likely overcapacity in the industry will get worse if oil prices stay low. If oil prices boom, this stock will boom. If you were betting on oil prices rising, I am not sure if this stock would give you a better return as opposed to other options like COP.

I like Gannet. It is in the worst industry in the world in my opinion, but it is generating $1 b+ net income and trading for less than $900 M. It’s current ratio is getting worse though and is coming close to 1:1. Long-term, this would be a bad investment because of the industry, but for 1-2 years or less, it could pay off well.

HERO is a lot like CPX, but they focus on offshore drilling. It’s trading at ~ 1.6x earnings.

MGM is up a shitton. Looks like we missed that boat.

None of these companies really impressed me, but I will keep an eye on these 3, ZLC, and SKS.

Tom C.

—————————————————————————-

thanks, alot of folks love the quote, we sell alot of high end knives to our military.
Last month we sold a big order to Homeland Security!

I went ahead about bought some CAEI today, glad I got in at $1

paul

People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf. Orwell

http://www.tdeknives.com/

—–Original Message—–
From: Bradford, Gle Ri
Sent: Thursday, March 26, 2009 05:24 PM
To: paul
Subject: RE: Nine Top China Plays
Paul,

You’re email didn’t pass my Junk e-mail filter. I found it anyway.

I’ll see what I can do. I run a bulletin board on ORS.

I invite you to check it out.

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=8745

I’ll be looking more at this since you pointed it out. Just curious, but do you usually get responses when you link to a knife website in your email? Haha, I can see that some people might be threatened. Good stuff.

I’m pretty good at getting responses. Shoot me your contacts that you’ve emailed and I send them looking like a student, people love students. People are afraid of knives.

Glen

From: paul
Sent: Wednesday, March 25, 2009 10:52 PM
To: gbrad
Subject: Nine Top China Plays

Hello there Mr. Bradford

I really enjoyed your read on the China picks. I have been accumulating many, many thousands of shares of ORS and I do believe it has a ton of potienal. I am considering buying several thousand more this week before the possible April 1, end of year release.
The BIG item holding down ORS is their Accounts Receivables. If they get them back in line, the stock will explode. I wanted to ask if you have found any info that suggests they have.
I have scanned all over the Internet and they will not answer emails so I was looking for any clue before I sink more money in. Just thought it would not hurt to ask another informed investor. Thanks for your time and keep up the good work.

paul

http://www.tdeknives.com/

———————————————————————————

Hello Glen,

I’ve been following your blog and investing the remainder of my ancient investments (ever hear of CMGI?) from 2000 -2001, where, I must say, I lost just about every penny I ever made betting on the dotcom boom. Since last October, when I discovered your site, I’ve taken my remaining 1000 bucks and now have doubled it investing in your stock recommendations. That would have been nice with the original 40K, but I’ll take what I can get.

Kindest regards,

David Wagner

D.A.Wagner Productions LLC

Another Blog

A Chart

Q4 Earnings Transcript

A few quotes:

“As we noted on prior occasions, CPP participation by way of a thrift acquisition was only one of the strategic levers Genworth has considered to provide another level of capital flexibility to address unforeseen events, and the nature of that program has continued to evolve,” said Michael D. Fraizer, Genworth chief executive officer. “Since Genworth’s initial CPP application in November, we have made significant progress enhancing our capital levels and flexibility using various strategies including reinsurance, refinements in targeted markets, dividend reductions, risk mitigation and expense streamlining. Genworth will continue to benefit from these actions. In addition, we remain comfortable with our target of a consolidated life insurance company risk-based capital ratio of 350 percent or above for year end 2009. We ended 2008 with about $2.0 billion of capital across Genworth in excess of levels required for targeted ratings or regulatory requirements. We continue to progress in our evaluation of additional strategic opportunities ranging from selected asset sales to other governmental programs that could provide additional financial flexibility, and we will pursue these where we believe it makes sense.”

Genworth will report first quarter operating results in early May and will provide additional comments as appropriate at that time.

In a related development, Genworth Financial Inc. (GNW) has decided not to participate in the TARP program, saying that its efforts to improve its financial position are working. The Journal notes that the company had few other options.

“Treasury officials told life insurers in late 2008 they could be eligible for federal assistance if they owned bank-holding companies,” according to the Journal. “However, Genworth said it was informed by Treasury on Thursday that the deadline it set for approval by the Office of Thrift Supervision to become a bank-holding company wouldn’t be extended.”

Currently a $1.19B company with a stock price of $2.75
Looks to me like a survival PE of about 1
Also looks to me like 1/9 of Revenues
Also 0.1334 of Book value

Quick Glance, I think we have a surviver!

Now, granted, this thing isn’t growing like CNO, but I’ll take it! I don’t think that GNW really needed this TARP money. I think it’s going home and sitting on a huge quarterly earnings surprise like it’s a golden egg. Odds are that if a company really needs something to survive, it’s a high priority and GNW would have clawed tooth and nail to get that “oh help me, i’m drowning” TARP bailout status.

Rank: 6609 out of 66161
Score: 438.46 (+607.24)

Member Rating

90.01

(+78.61)

This begs the question — why is CAPS set up so that I can increase my rating by 689% in 1 day?

Is this even justified?

Have I changed my strategy?

Should I have been rated this highly from the get go?

Timothy Sykes says dump this cause it’s been hyped.

A few statements I’ve Found:
“My firm Lebed Biz LLC has been compensated by a third-party (Maxim Capital) $20,000 cash for a one-month CHGY investor relations contract. “

“Momo Plays – Momoplays.com has been compensated by a third party the sum of 2500 dollars for a three day awareness campaign for chgy”

I don’t really care about who likes what and all that valley girl jargon. I care about facts. Fact is, companies could be lying to me. That said, I’ll take a walk on the wild side and list a few reasons why I like CHGY.

1. I went quarter by quarter through 2008 and saw that the sale prices were higher than 2007, but CHGY was unable to attack a these higher prices due to expansion and the olympics.

The olympics look to me to have killed $2M of revenue from the Heat Power, not to mention that their 2007 heat power numbers were hurt because of inefficiencies as 2007 was their first year of operation.

Then the whole expansion thing, what you have is CHGY holding onto it’s Annual revenues because the price of coal is going bonkers.
http://indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=coal-australian&months=60

So, then you check the numbers.

Year Annual Production Per ton Weighted Average Price
2004 506,913 $ 10
2005 612,739 $ 24
2006 549,970 $ 24
2007 459,055 $ 25
2008 264,098 $ 58

So, you can confirm that either the company is full of SHIT, or that they actually were expanding and cutting production in 2008. Good news, the new capacity is supposedly 800,000; even though they were talking 1,200,000; and some stock blogger people are chanting 900,000,000
http://theperfectstock.blogspot.com/

So, what has happened in the stock price? http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=chgy&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p04446711432

CRAP. I missed out on $0.06-$0.30

That’s a MONSTER GAIN! What could possibly be left in this stock? After all, Tim Sykes said it was bad.

Well, this year they increased their EPS and had little to negative impact on their top line Revenues.

With the whole 60% growth in coal mining and the non-occurance of the olympics, $30M in revenues is not out of the question with a coal price of $27. But basically, if they actually expanded, I see no way that they could possibly not have Year-over-Year double digit growth unless prices get trampled. I am a believer in China’s need for energy. I’ll take it. And no, nobody gave me any money to write this; but if they decide to give me money — I’ll let you know.

14 Tuition Breaking Stocks
By
Glen Bradford
You might have been like my friends and family in the past 6-months — afraid to check the portfolio, afraid to accidently see the latest Dow Jones beatdown, full of upset stomach from a depreciating portfolio of Large Caps that your broker said were a great buy 2 years ago. You might be in a state of denial. You might be sitting 100% cash with 2-years of fallout supplies packed into your basement. I challenge you to open your eyes and go hunt with me for bargains.
What sets Super Markets apart from Stock Markets is pretty straight forward. At the Super Market, a 50%-0ff sale draws people from across the country to line up at 4am and stampede the bargains. At the Stock Market, a 50%-off sale is like a bomb threat in an airport. There are those that make gobs of money in times when the stock market is 50%-off. The trick is not looking around for the 50%-off items, because those really aren’t the bargains anymore. There are stocks that are 95%-off in a 50%-off sale. I call this the clearance aisle. These goods are selling less than their cost to make (book value). The trick here is differentiating ones that are high quality from those of lesser quality. I set my parameters fairly straight forward. The companies I buy have to be profitable and growing.
Then, the trick is continuously learning how companies can and may scam their investors. I look for indications of accounting fraud, and try to eliminate those companies from my lists. Did you know that companies can boast huge numbers year-after-year and not be making money?
Now, I’m not saying that all 14 of these companies are going to be up 300% 1 year from today. What I am saying is that by being certain that I am uncertain, I can diversify my college tuition nest egg into 14 of the cheapest discounted cash flow companies out of the 5,000 I’ve sorted through. I can also do my best to minimize my risk by knowing how to identify accounting fraud and not paying more than book value for a stock. By doing this, I am certain that I will candidly beat the market over time. Don’t believe me? That’s fine. All I can do for you is give you the opportunity. The choice is yours to take it, or leave it.
Below I’ve compiled a table of all the plays I am considering or possibly in. Mind you that I have been betting my college tuition on my advice. Some of the numbers have been adjusted by me in order to reflect my feelings on the stock itself as well as potential dilutions.
Earnings Price P/E P/B Growth Bust Target Boom Target Exchange Listed? Bottom?
cno $ 0.85 $ 1.35 1.59 0.15 16% $6.80 $13.60 1 1.0
ghii $ 0.13 $ 0.08 0.62 0.16 27% $1.04 $3.51 0 0.7
nwd $ 0.20 $ 0.17 0.85 0.13 13% $1.60 $2.60 1 0.3
caei $ 0.50 $ 1.00 2.00 1.06 25% $4.00 $12.50 1 0.5
chcg $ 0.51 $ 0.92 1.80 0.55 20% $4.08 $10.20 0 0.8
cyxn $ 0.19 $ 0.27 1.42 0.68 25% $1.52 $4.75 0 0.9
gnph $ 2.16 $ 4.95 2.29 0.54 12% $17.28 $25.92 0 0.5
opai $ 0.20 $ 0.14 0.70 0.18 30% $1.60 $6.00 0 0.5
ltus $ 0.24 $ 0.30 1.25 0.32 26% $1.92 $6.24 0 0.6
ckgt $ 0.14 $ 0.30 2.14 0.23 11% $1.12 $1.54 0 0.6
akrk $ 0.09 $ 0.19 2.11 0.35 20% $0.72 $1.80 0 0.6
fas $ 4.00 $ 7.20 1.80 0.3 15% $32.00 $60.00 1 0.7
cneh $ 0.70 $ 1.49 2.13 0.61 20% $5.60 $14.00 0.5 0.4
xing $ 0.65 $ 1.32 2 0.17 10% $7.60 $9.50 0 0.5

I also figure that I’ll outline my sentiment. I’m bullish financials that are down 85%+ in the last 3 years that are likely to survive this downturn. I’m neutral-bullish commodity prices. I’m neutral-bearish the US dollar; not because of this narrative fallacy of monetizing the US deficit, but because of the US-Treasury bubble bursting and the reversal of the “run to the dollar for safety” trend. I’m bullish emerging markets.
Disclaimer: Glen and his investors currently own cno, ghii, nwd, caei, chcg, cyxn, gnph, opai, ltus, fas, cneh. Glen and his investors intend to purchase the other stocks mentioned in this article.