Aug 29 2009

“The Hun’s Top 12 Value Buys, Late August ‘09”

hedge fund update
Purdue Graduate Leaves behind $4M and was a homeless investor
Purdue Homeless Leaves Behind $4M

“The Hun’s Top 12 Value Buys, Late August ‘09”

By Jake Huneycutt

Over the past few months, I have made several successful calls and have earned an 80%+ return on my simulated portfolio; not to mention, my real life portfolio.  Back in March, I began buying into quality REITs that could be had for bargain-basement prices.   I have continued to research more companies in the REIT sector, most recently writing about DCT Industrial Trust (DCT) in late July.   I recommended buying into Discover Financial Service (DFS) under $7 in late April; it now trades near the $14 mark.  I even argued that microcap boat and yacht dealer MarineMax (HZO) could be a great buy under $3.50.   HZO now trades over $7.50.

Given the market’s run-up, however, my views have shifted a bit.  Once we tipped over Dow 9000, I felt as if we were entering a “change of seasons” and that it was time to start shifting my portfolios a bit.  Marine Max might’ve been attractive at $3.50 and Discover might’ve looked good at $7, but at the current prices, I believe risk exceeds reward potential, so they are not great buys any more.   The market changes quickly and you have to stay ahead.

With the Dow over 9500, it’s not quite as easy to spot deals as it was back in early ’09.  There was a time when three-quarters of the market looked undervalued, but that day has passed.  The good news is, there are still some great buys out there for prudent investors.   You just have to search a bit more than you did back in March.

Here are my top 12 stock ideas for late August:

1. Ensco International (ESV), under $40

Ensco is an international offshore drilling services company catering to the oil and gas industries.   The things that make Ensco particularly enticing are their low debt, great history of profitability, and position in an industry with strong growth potential.  You’d think with that profile, the stock would be selling at a sizable premium, but that’s simply not the case.

Net tangible assets are around $33 per share and the stock has been selling in the $35 – $40 range.  Now, consider their earnings:  $8.11, $6.73, and $5.04 per share for FY ’08, ’07, and ’06 respectively.   Based on FY ’08 earnings, the stock could be worth $120+.  Given the precipitous drop, you’d think earnings had dived off a cliff, except, they really haven’t.  Sure, they’ve been affected by the downturn and drop in oil prices like everyone else in the industry, but they still managed scrape out earnings of $1.41 per share for Q2 for FY ’09, and $2.97 per share for the first half of ’09.

It’s not as if cash flows have been poor either.  Operating cash flows have been very impressive, normally exceeding earnings.  Free cash flows [FCF] are not quite as plentiful since Ensco continues to expand its operations, but to their credit, ESV has managed to stay FCF-positive throughout most of the past five years.

Maybe the market is still somewhat sour on oil services, but given the high dependence on oil in the US, and increasing dependence in China and India, I still believe offshore oil related services are a winner in the long-term.   Ensco looks like a great bargain to me under $40.

2. Lexington Realty Trust (LXP), under $5

Many of the REITs that I have recommended or bought have jumped 30% – 100% over the past few months.  Lexington has outperformed the market since I first wrote about them, as well, but not by as much as I would have expected.  LXP still looks significantly undervalued to me.  After the run-ups on Brandywine (BDN) and Penn REIT (PEI), I’d rate LXP as my number one buy in the sector.

There’s a lot I like about Lexington right now.  Lexington’s leverage is moderate for a REIT with a 63% Liability/Value ratio.  Their properties tend to be in mid-sized markets, where property values haven’t become as out-of-whack as they have in some of the large-city markets like NYC, DC, LA, and the SF Bay Area/Silicon Valley.  Funds from Operations (FFOs) have remained positive, ignoring one-time write-downs.  Cash Flows from Operations are also very impressive.  All the while, Lexington continues to use their cash to pay down debt (at huge discounts to face value), while selling off some of their properties.

The only frightening thing about Lexington right now is that they are issuing most of their dividend in stock.  I’d like to see that practice come to an end, but it’s not enough to scare me away.   I’d wager to guess this stock dividend is helping to keep the stock price suppressed.  All the same, I believe the LXP is worth at least $12 and maybe even more like $15 – $20.  The dilution factor makes it difficult to nail down an absolute price, but once that stops, I believe the price for this stock will start moving back upwards.

To read more on Lexington, see my article from early May.   Also, check out Dan Wieman’s article from January, “Lexington: High-Yield Opportunity for 2009”.

3. DCT Industrial Trust (DCT), under $6

My views on DCT have not changed significantly since I did my write-up in late July.  Even if we assume their properties are overvalued on the balance sheet and write them down 10%, we still end up with net tangible assets around $4.30.  That might be dramatically on the pessimistic side, too.  Given the cash flow stream, I believe this is worth at least $8, and probably more in the $10 – $12 range.  Potentially, it could even be worth $15+. If you want to read more, see my in-depth analysis.

4. StarBulk Carriers (SBLK), under $4

5. Danaos Corporation (DAC), under $4

6. Paragon Shipping (PRGN), under $4.50

Certainly, there are a lot of issues with dry bulk shippers and it’s a particularly frightening sector.  All the same, I think it might be a good idea to do a sector buy and gobble up a few companies.  If one or two of them strike out, you can still come out ahead in the end due to the high gains from the winners.  These three companies (SBLK, DAC, and PRGN) all have some particular strengths and weaknesses:

StarBulk (SBLK) is not as heavily levered as most of the companies in the industry and is selling well below net asset values [NAV].   However, their operating history is fairly short so they are more difficult to judge than some of the other players in the sector.

Danaos (DAC), unfortunately, is heavily levered, which is the main reason why the stock has been punished so heavily.  However they have very strong cash flows.  I’d consider DAC a very high-risk stock, but potentially, it could come with some spectacular rewards.

Paragon (PRGN) seems to be the middle ground.  They are not as heavily levered as DAC, but more levered than SBLK.  They have also had strong historical performance.

There are a large number of other intriguing buys in the sector, as well.  Overall, I believe the sector is significantly undervalued, but it’s completely possible that we see a shake-up in the next few years with a number of bankruptcies, so beware of the risks.  None of these companies are completely “safe”, but that’s why the rewards could be handsome in the future.

7. Oil Refiners (SUN, VLO, WNR, TSO)

I have mixed opinions on the refiners right now.  Almost all of them are selling well below net tangible assets.  From a valuation standpoint, most of the refining stocks look very attractive to me.  However, there are reasons to believe this entire industry is in contraction.  Even more frightening to me is the prospect that Washington, in its effort to pretend it’s tackling environmental issues, seems to have a strategy of targeting “big oil”.  Case in point, the Wall Street Journal reports that new legislation could have a disastrous effect on the US refining industry.  Believe it or not, I’d consider myself an environmentalist who is highly concerned about energy independence, but this proposal is wrong-headed in every way.  It doesn’t solve any of our problems; it merely puts our refiners at a competitive disadvantage while increasing our dependence on foreign oil.

But I digress … my bigger point here is that the refiners look undervalued, but we have Washington looming in the background making them a potentially dangerous buy.  Still, I’d keep an eye on them and an oil refiner basket play could work well.  Sunoco (SUN), Valero (VLO), Western Refining (WNR), and Tesoro (TSO) are a few of the companies I’ve looked into.   All have their risks, but it would appear that the sector as a whole might be undervalued.  I just wouldn’t be the bank on it right now due to the risks from Washington.  A refiner basket as a 5% – 10% holding in one’s portfolio might still be wise, though.

8. Pennsylvania REIT (PEI), under $7

As you might be able to tell, I still believe the REIT sector, as a whole, is significantly undervalued.   There is a lot of garbage in the sector, of course, but if you can find companies with strong assets, low to moderate leverage, and reasonably good FFOs and cash flows at historically cheap prices, I still believe it’s a good idea to gobble them up.  Pennsylvania REIT has had a bit of a run-up since my original write-up, but it still looks cheap to me.

While P-REIT has a bit more leverage than I like to see, it’s still a strong company selling well below NAV.  Even with further drops in real estate prices, I believe the stock is significantly undervalued and could be worth closer to $30 than the $7 price it’s selling at.  Under $8, I believe it’s still a great value.  See my article for a more in-depth look at PREIT.

9. Tsakos Energy Navigation (TNP), under $18

10. Nordic American Tankers (NAT), under $32

Like the drybulk shippers, tankers can be scary, as well.  Most of them are heavily levered and it’s a volatile industry.  Tsakos (TNP) has a great deal of leverage like many of its peers, but it has a strong operating history and it’s selling at a sizable discount to net tangible assets, worth about $24 per share.  For a closer analysis, see my pitch at Motley Fool

Nordic American (NAT) is a bit different than Tsakos.  NAT still sells above net tangible assets of $22 per share, which creates some risk.  On the other hand, it has virtually no debt and has had a consistently good operating history.   I don’t think you’re going to blow the world away buying this stock, but it seems like it’s in a win-win situation.  If conditions improve, their earnings and cash flows should go back up, which means it will be worth more.  If conditions deteriorate, some of their competitors might get wiped out, meaning they can gobble up more market share.  I believe it’s probably worth closer to $40 – $45 and it has some good upside potential even despite the lack of leverage.  See my pitch at Motley Fool to read more.

11. Constellation Energy Partners (CEP), under $3

This company recently came across my radar.  I still need to research it a bit more before I move it up the list, but it looks very promising to me.  Even after a $225 million writedown of their PP&E, I still come up with net tangible assets of over $13 per share.  Earnings fluctuate wildly, as seems to be typical in the oil & gas industries, but cash flows have actually looked pretty good. They have hedged their bets like crazy, which has helped them through the current crisis.

Of course, there’s something wrong or it wouldn’t be selling below $3.  They recently eliminated their quarterly distribution, which tends to be one of those things people overreact to.  Their leverage isn’t too terrible, so even if they went bankrupt, I think there’s a strong possibility it would be worth more than the current price.  If CEP survives this crisis, it could potentially go back up to above $15 – $20.  This is definitely a high risk/high reward play.  Sure, there’s a chance I could lose 100% on it, but there’s a reasonable chance I could gain 1000% on it.  If you like going for broke, this might be a company to look into.

12. Ruddick Corporation (RDK), under $26

On the completely opposite end of the risk spectrum from CEP lies Ruddick Corporation (RDK); the parent company of regional up-scale grocer Harris Teeter.  Trading at a slight premium to book value, with strong cash flows.  I come up with an intrinsic value closer to $40 – $45.  For my full write-up on Ruddick click on this link!

Those are my top 12 buys at the moment.  If you want to see more of my picks, you can follow my CAPS profile at Motley Fool, or check into my simulated portfolio at KaChing.

Disclosure: Author is long ESV, FUR, DCT, LXP, and PEI.  Author is considering going long on CEP, SBLK, DAC, and PRGN in the near future.

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Aug 26 2009

$MYST Glen’s Shot at Technical Analysis

Glen's Shot at technical analysis

Glen's Shot at technical analysis

KUN – no
KURU – no
LFC – no
LFT – no
LGDI – no
LDK – no
LLFH – should at least double
LM – upside is there, just dont care
LONG – no
LTON – no? why was it ever so expensive
LTSC – no
MEMS – no but is this the teacup formation?
MCJ – ticker?
MHJ – no
MPEL – no
MR – no

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Aug 25 2009

Youtubed Class #1 $JGBO $CNAM $CHGY

At this point, I don’t want to figure out how to embed a video link. so here’s the link

http://www.youtube.com/user/globalspeculation

CHGY – i’m updating this from a mild yes at this price to a larger yes at this price. with coal at $80/metric ton. eps est of 77 cents sounds good. *stops selling and starts adding*
CHDO – no, increasing revs increasing losses
CHDX – no expensive
CHFR – no, too small
CHGI – starting to get up there. buy the dip. dip doesnt look complete yet, maybe $1.10?
CHGS – yes, but not a super yes.
CHHN – a potential short.
CHIF – why is this listed?
CHIO – maybe, should be an easy double from here. this is one that should be a dip buy here shortly (i dated a chi omega once (chi o))
CHSH – no. why is this public?
CISG – no expensive
CHHB – no their chart is my mental picture from 8th grade history class of a plateau. what happened?
CHINA – no
CHL – probably a double in the next 1.5 years, but i dont know
CHLO – no
CHPC – no
CHMD – no
CHNQE – no
CHRN – no
CHU – too expensive
CHV – ticker? no.
CHWE – no
CHYU – no
CIO – no
CISG – no
CIWT – no but should definately double from here
CIVS – undervalued, but where is the growth? hence risky. but should go $1+
CLWT – nah
CMED – should triple, not enough for me. forward p/e of 30 is ballpark ‘OK’
CMFO – also a tripler. on the NYSE. woot
CMM – nah
CNAM – yes
CNER – nah
CNGL – nah
CNTF – nah
CNUV – no
COGO – nah but should double
CPDV – no … lol their 10-Q has numbers in ‘000 of USD.. LAUGHS!
CPLY – no .. i thought luxury goods were supposed to have wider profit margins – that’s what school told me. myth BUSTED
CPSL – i am not buying @ these prices, likely to go higher
CREG – nah
CREO – think i liked this since april… but gave up because it’s on the london exchange and i just dont want to deal with that.
CRJI – nah
CRTP – nah
CRUI – nah
CSGJE = yes – csgj = 26M shares out there. net income of about $15M using ballpark calcs. P/E = 2 and growth.
CSIQ – nah
CSKI – should triple
CSOF – nah but love the chart
CSR – nah but should at least double
CTDC – nah
CTEL – nah, but the kid flying with cardboard wings is cute in their reports
CTFO – not now, missed the runup, still should go up to a p/e of 20 tho.
CTRP – ha NO. Chalk this up with BIDU as idiots are buying these two and not the stocks i recommend at this point
interjection! RBY – not for me, i dont know enough.. hmm.. comparing the size of the mine to a $11B campbell mine ( could be worth $30B if gold sees $3000 on these estimates.). on a company at $500M. worth looking at… but i would need to see the place. just speculation.
CUIG – looks like kindergartners *sp* made their annual report
CVDT – nah but love the chart
CVVT – ticker?
CWEY – no revs
CXSB – ticker?
CXDC – nah
CYD – nah
CYOU – should double prolly, not strong about that feeling, could be one time growth.
CYXI – this is the stock that taught me that price action is also a source of information, in this case, negative.. as it fundamentally looked good but price was saying something was up 7 months ago
DGNG – dont like it (non-for-profit)
DL – candiate for shorting
DRUG – underpriced, should double
EDU – too expensive for me.
EFUT – grew business at the expense of becoming a non-for profit. lol stock 40 to 8
EJ – was a buy when i rec’d it in october, i’d sell now. but that’s just me. reason: opportunity cost
EMDY – maybe 50% underpriced on scratch calcs.
ENHD – dunno
FEED – buy the dip. should double easy in the next year.
FFHL – dunno, like the chart. someone investigate if this is a good turnaround.
FMCN – lol no
FSIN – undervalued probably gonna double.
FUQI – looks good from when i first said this was a buy. thank breakoutinvestments for bringing it to my attention. still a double left in it but i’d be out.
GA – nah
GAI – nah
GBT – nah
GCIH – nah
GCME – ticker?
gtcn – no
GEBD – sleepy stock. should double @ least
GIGM – prolly a doubler
GMPM – nah
GOEG – no
GRO – nah
GRRF – hmm, maybe would need to understand net income applicable to ADR
GSH – no but prolly will go up 50%
GSOL – nah, nah nah
GZGT – nah, but could be a 10 bagger+ maybe 100 bagger
HAO – chinese small caps for dummies
HEAT – no
HEK – bet on the guy’s equity, could be big, just would rather buy my own companies over there. and not water companies. probably a winner going forward
HEV – nah
HFGB – nah
HIHO – nah
HKWO – nah
HMIN – looks expensive, but rightly so. not interested
HNP – nah
HOGS – still should double, same with feed
HOL – nah
HOLI – nah
HPJ – nah, but should prolly x3 to $80M market cap in 3 years
HQS – nah
HRAY – nah
HRCT – nah
HRBN – nah
HSWI – nahz
HTX – nah, but interesting historic large dividend payments
IAQG – nah
IFSG – nah
JASO – nah
JGBO – yes
JNGW – yes
JRJC – nah
JST – prolly a doubler
KHD – probably will turn around and go x3. not interested – great source of information through their const. Q and K reports
KNDI – nah
KONG – nah

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Aug 22 2009

China’s Microcaps: Stay Alive and Catch the Wave $CNAM $MYST $CDBT $CGDI

So, I tried to catch the Chinese uplisting wave but the closest I got was Hawaii.

Although I only caught 2 seconds of wave and experienced over an hour of what might as well be fighting for my life trying to surf Hawaii, I’ve come away with 4 key insights that I believe would help even the savviest of investors. I also have 4 Chinese companies that are selling at remarkable discounts to my calculated intrinsic value.

  1. Understand the currents and don’t get swept away. The first thing I did upon entering the water was to get swept out to sea. Market’s boom and bust in cycles much like waves come in sets. Right now China Armco (CNAM) is a great way to play inflation, liquidity and China. They import, distribute and refine metals into and around China; a natural hedge against inflation. They just got backed by two lines of credit totaling $25M, a little less than their present market capitalization, and have access to new liquidity for expansion. Trading around $30M and having given guidance a couple years back with earnings around $15M and putting down a huge Q2 with the assistance of a onetime transaction affecting revenues by $10.6M. Not to mention that the metals market in China is turning up the heat faster than Chef Ramsay.
  2. Don’t start with the short board. There are tons of fancy investing strategies that don’t get you anywhere. Get a good undervalued company and go long and strong in a bull market as I said 2009 would be in January and caught nothing but criticism. Skystar Bio-Pharmaceutical Company (SKBI) is priced to shrink at $14 and is far from it. Fancy investment strategists might suggest you run a covered call strategy on Skystar. That’s nonsense and is in fact riskier in my opinion as you limit your gains on a company that is ridiculously undervalued in the first place. The only way to play a gem like Skystar is to go long and strong and ride with them through the completion of their vaccine manufacturing facility in Q4. Skystar is so cheap you are nuts if you don’t own it, just as I was nuts to start on a short board.
  3. Don’t start in an arena surrounded by hard knocks. In some instances, perception is everything. China Dasheng Biotechnology (CDBT) is a small Chinese company that makes and distributes additives for livestock feed. Although the company is firing on all cylinders, it’s priced to shrink 75% when it just pulled triple digit growth (xxx%). The school of hard knocks in investment land is the OTC market as many unloved companies inhabit it. In Hawaii, I started surfing the rockiest I’ve ever seen and proceeded to get beat up on the rocks. But once I was able to escape the rocks, the panic subsided and things got better — as I expect it to be for the stockholders of China Dasheng in the coming year.
  4. If you can’t do it, don’t keep trying — go find another spot. In this regard, China Growth Development (CGDI) might be that spot. China Growth leases units in shopping malls and pulled double digit growth in Q2 and is priced to shrink 50%. I learned never to surf a short board, at high tide, in rocky waters. There were definitely safer waters on the Big Island, as I found out later. China’s shopping mall future looks brighter to me than that of the USA. Why not take advantage of the discrepancy?

The thrill of the chase will get even the most unknowledgable of investors to launch out and try to make it big. Just look at the parabolic nature of the Shanghai Market in the last 5 months and the Nasdaq in 2001 and you’ll see the wave of ignorance as I call it. What they don’t realize is that making it big takes practice, persistence, guidance, and a little bit of good fortune. What looks so easy on land or on television is never as easy as it looks — as I found out fighting for my life in Hawaii.

Disclaimer: Bradford was long China Armco, Skystar, China Dasheng, and China Growth at the time of publication.

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Aug 22 2009

$$ I have purchased all your “yes” recommendations and all goes well.-Ogden

First, I’m going to host a class at Purdue and I intend to video tape it 5-6pm on mondays.
See the flyer on GlenBradford.com
If you couldn’t see the last video I tried to post, Glen Goes youtube
csgj – nah over 300% dilution and double expansion
cpqq – yes very small but yes
CAEI – yes but not super cheap, check the backlog

Some requests:
Glen: could you please comment JGBO?
JGBO – Yes, i like this one. these Chinese money issues are widespread and will eventually get solved either through dilution (likely) or some reform (unlikely).

GLEN: i just came across KPPC p/e 4.41 p/b 0.67 q1=.39 q2= .64 trading   at 5.30… i woul tkink with a fwd p/e od 9 = 2.50eps x 9 = $22.50 for a + 325% gain, or am i wackier than usual as wife would say??? what say you???NORM
KPPC – obviously cheaper below $2. your numbers are off. take a look at the dilution $85M. Now 45.4M shares outstanding. i don’t like it, but you could double from here (100%). i think you may be wacky.

Just a heads up that i think TSTC and CDBT are compelling values now…TSTC reported already ,the eps gain YOY was small ,because of the year before’s currency gain and a govt grant reported in other income (check it out)..Also if CDBT earnings come in anywhere decent .05….06 or so ….with a good outlook ,then it should trade over a buck easy…..with about .20 eps for the ttm …at a buck pe=5..I’m doing well this year so far..
TSTC – no – better at $1, down 50% since 2007, not sure if i can find the website??? is that really it? FP/S = .7 FP/E = 5. Growth this year = 100% in top line. P/B = 1, but huge A/R. so no.
CDBT – Yes – Yes – Yes. Don’t get caught up trying to trade in and out at fractions of a cent. just buy it at the ask. thank me in a year.

Hey man, I write ads for a living and I can tell you iPhone/mobile apps/games are gonna be HUGE. So thanks for the heads up on ALIF, I’m all in on that one. Check VIFL when you get a chance. They preserve food through irradiation (x-rays and whatnot). PE of 5, solid growth in spite of losing a huge customer, etc., etc.
VIFL – no

Hi Glen;vJust a heads up;I am buying the following stocks based on great earnings reports.
Chinese; CBPO, CAGC, SIHI, TBV, CNAM and CMPT.
American; APT, RWC, RTK and NAVR.
I hope you enjoyed your Hawaii trip. -Dean
CBPO – yes – P/B = 1.2 P = 4.39 P/S = .9, P/E = 3.42, growth = xxx% triple digits
CAGC – yes – but not “crazy yes” – P/S = 1.2 P =2/95 E = 0.80+ ballpark, growth = 30%+; their guidance is low. i think they will outperform their $60M target. look for at least $68M top line and $16M bottom line
SIHI – not cheap enough for me. but 100% growth. worth looking at if the pickings get slim.
TBV – no – can get the same growth cheaper, but should double for you
CNAM – YES … I beat Geoeye to the starting line again.
CMTP – buy the dip. i repeat, buy from the idiots selling this low. same with pudz.
APT – should double, not cheap enough for me. 50%+ growth
RWC – dont like the 4 year trends
RTK – already jumped, market cap is above p/s=1. i’m not interested
NAVR – P/EBITA = 3. sounds like a easy double .. but the growth picture. no clue.

tteg – no – no revs
akns – not for profit
nksh – no
nodb – not down enough
AMGY – low risk net cash, makes money. what’s up? no trading volume.
telt – no weak FCF and over last 5 years no rev growth, but it does look cheap
tbus – no
frp – no – lots of debt, applying for grants
cmtp – yes
cpdy – ticker?
cski – no – expensive but should double in the next 2 years.
gfre – yes – :-)
lpih – yes – :-)
wemu – down half in the last 3 days, good thing i didnt own through that. not buying now.
chln – no, but understand there are warrants and derivatives that are non-cash and drag down the eps.
cagc – see above
chbt – no too expensive
chbo – no — too small.
chln – no see above

Back to that incomplete monster list
AOB – see you at $10. i have lots of leap call options on AOB back from the crash. motley fool free publicity here.
APWR – no 200% upside
ATAI – no
ATVG – no- love the chart. too bad no revenues
ASIA – no
AWSH – no- another great chart, not big enough.
AYA – delist city. no
BBC – ticker? this isn’t chinese.
BEST – great chart, not cheap enough, how was it ever that expensive?
BIDU – NO!
BJGP – no, huge revenue growth, still expensive as it is not for profit.
BNSO – no (where’s the growth)
CAAH – nah, but could go x15 based on P/S
CAAS – not now.
CABL – greater revenues = greater losses. no
CABLW – no same as CABL and CABLU
CACA -no
CADC – looks like it will go x3 in the next 5 years.
CADQF – no
CAGC – see above
CAGM – i say yes. don’t confuse the subsidary CHFY with the stock. looks like a net cash/growth play for little downside risk and definate upside.
CHFY – no revs
CAXG – No. way expensive. lol.
CBAK – no
CBPO – someone showed this to cassel
CBTT – why did they stop reporting?
CCSE – ticker?
CDBT – yes
CDII – at brief glance, no, but heard there was more to this one.
CDS – nah
CDYT – ran out of cash? why stop reporting?
CEA – nah
CEDU – nah
CEO – nah -heard a lot of talk on this one. CNOOC
CEUA (CEU) – getting expensive
CFAQF -no
CFCG – ticker?
CFQUF – nah
CGA – no. did the motley fool ever talk about this?
CGRH – nah unless something non-pink pops up
CGYG – no. lol makes holy wine.
CHA – nah
CHBT – nah
CHBU – been trading net cash

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Aug 17 2009

Monster semi-complete Post

to post:
cgdi – yes
esph – story stock
jmba – keep getting emails from these non-4-profit folk. so i don’t own it. things appear to be getting less worse. but still really stink in my opinion
snak – somehow related to jmba – speculatively overpriced. just my opinion
emzg – got some emails on this too from hci. don’t like it.
siaf – 50 million shares outstanding, expensive
grvy – play on cash, company seems profitable, have to understand ADR’s, i gave up.
csol – just dont like it, maybe i’m wrong. just not cheap enough for me.
CZZ – no, just not enough upside for a sugar buzz. i say risky.
cyxn – no surprise in earnings, yes still.
jada – no surprise in earnings here, one of my few turnaround plays
CSGH – yes
CNOA – yes
AKRK – yes
CHGI – yes
cgdi – http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=40542859 yes
gsl – good shipper
chnt – too expensive $40 cents eps ballpark

pulled this from somewhere, it’s a good starter for you folks out there
My latest watchlist of China stocks….first are holdings…then a lengthy watch list that needs to be cleaned up for ticker changes etc:
China Stock Holdings:
CAEI – yes but not super cheap, check the backlog
CBEH – no
CCGY – yes
CGDI – yes
CGYV – no
CHCG – went from yes to turnaround in the last 3 days. i filled buy orders i placed months ago at 58 cents today
CHFI – yes
CHGY – kind of yes
CMTP – yes
CHME – yes
CKGT – yes kind of
NEP – kind of yes
CNOA – yes
CPHI – kind of yes
CHNR – no?
CSGH – yes
CWSI – expensive
CNDH – yes sold down big
CGDI – yes
CYXN – yes,
FEEC – no
FUFW – no
GFRE – yes and expensive
GHII – wait and yes
GU – no
JADA – i’m biased, yes
LPIH – yes
LTUS – yes
MYST – yes
NFES – no but should double here soon
PFAP – no but with big question marks, looking for estimates from the new agreements.
PHIE – too small
PUDC – buy the dip
SCLX – yes, even with the dilution
CHNG – expensive
SNEN – just got really cheap, down 50% after hours. still no
SRRY – p/s around 1 no.
CHLN – no
GSI – another stockpicker play
CSUN – no clue what’s going on here.
CSOL – dunno
CDBT – yes
SGAS – no, check the late filing
LEGE – no way.
SUTR – chinastockpicker likes it, i say maybe.
NOEC – no
FXI – if your dumb and you want to buy china, this is how you do it.
MNAP – no

AMGY – low risk net cash, makes money. what’s up?

telt
tbus

Watch List:

AAMA – no
AAXT – no
ABAT – no
ABC – no
ACDQ – dead? no.
ACH – no clue, #’s in CNY, prolly a doubler.
ACTS – no clue whatsoever. down so much in the last 4 years.
ADY – no
AIDA – no but almost
AKRA – no
ALIF – hmm.. cheap and growing. for the most part. neat products
ALRC – yes, easy double
AMCN – not sure how to price an adr and know they are tricky, why was this ever so expensive? like a P/E of 100+?
AMGY – low risk

———————–LEFT OUT A BIG MIDDLE CHUNK, WILL PUT THAT IN SOME FOLLOWING POSTS A-T——–

TGLP – no, too small
TNROE – ticker?
TOMO – no
TONJ – no
TPI – no, but if you do – buy post drug clearance rally
TSL – no
TSTC – no but slightly undervalued
TTY – no
TXIC – no, but should go higher from here
TYM – no
UFPI – no
ULBI – no
UTA – will likely triple in 3 years
UTSI – no
VIMC – no
VISN – no
VIT – no
VLNC – no
WATG – no
WDAT – ticker?
WEMU – still cheap but i’m out
WH – cheap growing, not cheap enough
WMDG  – no but feel free to buy in the dip
WUHN – no
WX – no
XHUA – no
XIN – not anymore
XHUA – no
YGE – expensive! get out
YGYB – new ticker?
YSYB – no
YTEC – no
YUII – yes but not cheap
YZC – no
ZBB – no
ZHYP – no? but big equity financing proportional to market cap
ZNH – no

It’s tough to find a list of US listed China stocks…these have been obtained from various places…message boards, google searches etc….

—————$MYST Dilution Not So Bad ———————–

Ms. Liu joined the Company as Vice President and Director of the Company on March 20, 2006. From June 2004 through March 2006, Ms. Liu was the Chief Operating Officer of sinosuper.com (“Sino”). Sino is an internet company that is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Wukuang IE Limited.

MyStarU.com, Inc. (the “ Company” ) entered into a St ock Purchase Agreement (the “ Stock Purchase Agreement” ), dated as of August 3, 2009, to sell 50,000,000 restricted shares of the Company ’ s common stock, par value $.001, to Wukuang IE Limited, a British Virgin Islands corporation, at a purchase price of $ 0 .06 per share, for a total of $3,000,000. A copy of the Stock Purchase Agreement is attached to this Current Report as Exhibit 10.1.

Under the time schedule, Wukuang will continue operating by the
existing key persons as management, and have been for examination by Alpha
during March 2006. Alpha has already hosted Wukuang personnel at
integrating use Subaye.com, with ensuing approval of Wukuang’s experts from
the logistics facility. Alpha is working with SMEs and parties for the
immediate implementation of logistics with Subaye.com in China. Alpha also
has access to 100 SMEs for logistics in China. Under the LOI, Alpha will
acquire a 100% interest of Wukuang IE Limited, with an exclusive trade
rights license of mineral products that Wukuang has grants for from the
China government.

“On the web: http://www.mystaru.com
MyStarU.com (formerly Telecom Communications)  The company, founded in 1995  now operates in China through its subsidiaries — Alpha Century Holdings, 3G Dynasty, Huiri Electric, Arran Services, and IC Star MMS”

Wukuang is 100% owned by Alpha
Tuesday, 28 February 2006, 12:00 CST
HONG KONG, Feb. 28 /Xinhua-PRNewswire/ — Telecom Communications, Inc. (BULLETIN BOARD: TCOM) today announced its subsidiary, Alpha Century Holdings Limited (Alpha) has signed a Letter of Intent to acquire Wukuang Import & Export Limited (Wukuang). Alpha plans to acquire a 100% interest of Wukuang in exchange for $6 million in cash and convertible notes. Wukuang Managements will become an integral part of TCOM’s SME China strategy as Alpha’s Business to Business to Consumer (BtoBtoC) value chain Subaye.com e-commerce business.

Alpha at one place was referred to as Subaye.com. Alpha was dissolved in Feb of 2008.
Conclusion: Alpha is now either Subaye or Myst. The 50 Million share sale was not an arms length transaction but a transfer of stock and money between subsidiaries. Thus the 6 cent price is not an indication of the value of Myst. This is good news.
——————— CNAM ——————–
China Armco Metals, Inc. (China Armco) imports, sells, and distributes metal ores and non-ferrous metals to the metal refinery industry in China. The Company import metal ore from global suppliers in Brazil, India, South America, Oman, Turkey, Iran, Libya, Nigeria, Indonesia, and the Philippines. It resells the metal ore to manufacturers of steel and other metal products in China. It sources a range of raw materials, which includes iron ore, coal, chrome ore, nickel ore, copper ore, scrap metal, and manganese ore. On June 27, 2008, the Company acquired Armco & Metawise (HK), Ltd. On December 30, 2008, the Company discontinued its business of distribution of organic fertilizer products.

Officers and directors
Kexuan Yao
Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Age: 37
Fengtao Wen
Chief Financial Officer
Age: 34
Weigang Zhao
Vice General Manager of Armet Lianyungang, Director
Age: 30

website: http://www.armcometals.com/

TAGS:
Aug 12 2009

$SKBI $LPIH $CSGH $JADA $CHFI $PUDZ maybe $SGTI

sgti – no, yes, maybe so. big idea.
chyu – no
cast – no
ctel – no prolly an easy doubler in the next 3 years
iaqg – too complicated i dunno, no.
deer – no
dtvi – no
efut – no, but lots of cash and q4 2008 was BIG
exou – no
gsi – good with sutr, cpsl and rino, that’s a good mental grouping.
ghii – big potential, Q1 sucked for a unsmooth industry. not a surprise here.
gfre – yep
hpj – no
jgbo – yep
jst – no
ntwk – no
opai – yes
pudz – yes
xing – cloudy yes
rino – yes, getting expensive.
sdth – prolly an easy triple in 3 years
jada and chfi – i still like them michael
gfre csgh lpih – like these norm. gfre has rallied big time though. starting to get expensive.
bptr – no, not profitable
best – could beat the market this next year, not enough for me.
sihi – just uplisted, should double in the next year.
skbi – yes
heat – expensive, gross
sokf – will definately outperform the market going forward, just not by enough for me.
sorl – better 5 months ago, still out of my price range
suwn – potential, but too shaky for me.
tpi – no
txic – no but this thing is gonna run prolly if you ask ta people
wh – i think sellers as of late will look back and realize the error of their ways
xsel – no
ygii – should be a doubler in the next year
yuii – can you say, better than ygii?

TAGS:
Aug 11 2009

$CHME $CPBY $CHGI $NEP $CSKI $LPIH $MYST $CCGY $SCLX 1st Vid

Glen1-iPhone-cell

LPIH SCLX MYST CCGY

LPIH SCLX MYST CCGYclfd - no

cfsg – no
wuhn – no, but probably an easy double in 3 years.
JNGW – Completed acquisition that will add more than $2 million net income.
svlf – should outperform in the next 5 years
sdbk – hmmmm, no
hek – many question marks
rso – lots of selling, yuck. no go. but enough cash flow for the 30% dividend according to their conf call.
cga – no
ciic – no
med – no
csr – braindead double probably and market outperform
tis – no
vm – no
cvu – no
here’s a few that were from someone, picked one and commented
AEY,BBI/B,
BMRA – lower annual revenues, increasing earnings. interestingly cheap. any doctors want to open the can of worms?
,CYAN,ISDR,PWEB,QID ROIAK,SENEA,SPCK,TELT,UPG,WFSC,WLFCP
abat – no
feed – yes, not cheap anymore
alrc – ditto
auclf – no clue what it is
bspm – no
cvic – hahah no
cadc – not now
cagc – easy double in 5 years. guess just on chart and trends.
cali – expensive about now
caas – expensive
cbpo P/E of 3 going forward and 30% growth seems cheap P/B = 2 P/s = 0.9 conf = 6
chgi – i blew this one out of the water then, didnt i?
cdii – no
cgyv – no
cpby – probably an easy double in 4 years.
cmfo – easy triple in 3 years. prolly i think.
chme – boom shaka laka. i’m not going to tell you how great this one is. boom boom pow.
chng – nope
nep – yes
cphi – no brainer. wake up you baboons on wallstreet..
cski – easy triple in 3 years.
ctdc – no revenues, LMAO. what kind of ipo is this? junk sale? (sry just dont understand it)
ctfo – too expensive
cwsi – ditto

TAGS:
Aug 10 2009

$EROC $RSO $CBPO $SDBK $YGII $YUII $HEK and some others

SGZH – interesting opportunity, cheap, growing, contacted company – but what about the future and is it cheap enough?
trtn – no revenues
uve – not cheap enough
cga – google’s market cap is outrageous. people are idiots. way better deals in my stocks.
hek – large opportunity, risky. not my bag of tea, tried contacting them, no answer.
ygii – dop opportunity ending. too expensive for me.
cxdc – google lies, not supremely undervalued
yuii – no brainer double, but i need more than that
cbpo – better 8 months ago
sdbk – bottoming behavior, only 300% upside, not interested, could be an easy double with research
sgas – digging deeper
some shippers:
gsl – fools don’t understand this value play. $30M in income and market cap of $80M – Can you see what I see? plus it’s growing as far as i can tell
i need to dig through SSW, ONAV, and ULTR
EROC – haha, wow. you kidding me? hilarious. guidance reaffirmed and no takers.
rso – 30% yielder to sit and wait. interesting.
nrf – another good real estate idea
sfi – too risky for me
gkk – not interested
mpg – how on earth did the price ever get so high when it was red red red?
llfh – no duh, yes
lpih – ditto
wemu -ditto
cbpo – cheap, growing, uplistable, but not ultra cheap. good find
chbt – seems expensive to me.
sdth – ditto
CAGC – not cheap enough
CWSI – ditto
SVA – ditto
CSKI – not cheap enough

TAGS:
Aug 7 2009

Just Landed in Hawaii, aloha with nice emails

Hi Glen;
I just want you to know i have been following your posts since the beginning of the year.
My account is up an incrediable 400% since Jan. From 60K to 300K.
I got opai at 15 cents.
fuqi at 4.68
hrbn at 6.55
feed at 2.39
txic at 3.38.
apwr at 4.
holi at 2.42.
cfsg at 8.01.
chln at 2.6,
And many others.
Your posts helped me find some of these, such as opai.

I enjoyed your interview.
I am now having trouble finding chinese stocks with PE’s under 5.
Did you see the earnings report for CMTP?
It should move up strongly from 3.65.
Anyway it would be great to talk to you some time.
Our investment ideas are pretty much the same.
Thanks,
Dean

TO ANY CRITIC OF GLEN BRADFORD
Glen Bradford has taken a nest egg and made me over 100% return in one quarter. Some individuals may not believe in Glen’s strategy. Some say he was making a big mistake investing his college tuition in high “risk” stock market positions. I will tell those people this. As of today Glen has taken my portfolio and turn over 100% gain! I am not talking about a few thousand; I am talking about tens of thousands. Good work Glen, you just made me someone’s annual salary before taxes in three months.

Mazen

Hi Glen,

Moving up to live interviews, and well done, too. Great to see you on screen.

Hey, congratulations on buying a camera AND A MICROPHONE (you figured it out!). Now, don’t forget, lighting is critical for professional looking results. Call me with any questions, I’ll be happy to help. And that’s not an idle offer.

FYI, with the market back up, my portfolio, which is 95% from your picks, is now over $4,000. Not much yet , I know, but that’s 500 % up from the original 768 bucks and there’s still 3 months to go before it’s a full year investing with you. Theoretically, if you keep this up, my paltry little 768 dollar investment will be worth 500K by the end of 2012. Just in time for retirement.

Keep it going.

Best,

David

TAGS:
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