GlobalSpeculation.com
Because it does not make sense not to

Well, I think that I might have taken my last structured class, completing roughly an 18 year journey, leaving me where I am today. I guess my only request would be that if you’re going to start reading this, you might as well finish it, not because it’s probably not going to be that long, but also because without the end I don’t think it’s going to paint a coherent message.

I don’t usually do this — and by that I mean that I don’t usually take time out to reflect on things that have happened as I spend most of my professional vocal strength painting the simple ways to not lose money on the portraits of people’s minds the best way I can.

Anyway, I figure that it’s worth reflecting on what I did in the past. Heck, maybe you can do it better.

Walking out of my classes today was less of a transitional lifetime moment than walking out of my last elementary school 5th grade class. I had just spent the day listening to several MBA final presentations. It was clear to me that the majority relied on their ability to emulate good decision making abilities ignoring the likelihood (in my opinion) that their ideas were refined bullshit. But, what do I know, I think my groups did the best job in both classes even though I didn’t help them present (I have a kidney stone). Our business plan was actually feasible and professional. Our negotiation exercise made a mockery of the idea of an exercise by putting a “study person” against a “party person” in a group project situation where they needed to fairly distribute hours spent working on the project, drinks at the bar, and job contacts. I got that sense of urgency today, like I have been getting throughout a lot of my schooling which always boils down to a couple key points:

1. What am I doing here?
2. How is my time best spent?
3. What am I waiting for?

Anyway, I think the majority of why I still feel like I haven’t transitioned is for 2 reasons.

1. I am relatively unsure whether or not I passed this last series of classes.
2. If I did pass, my parents have asked me to walk for graduation, so I’m tied down here for 2 weeks anyway.

As far as point 1 goes, this is mostly because in negotiations class, my strategy, which is unlike the strategy of any of my fellow classmates (competitive, collaborative, integrative, etc.) is that of avoidance. Needless to say, combine that with the fact my submissions for “reflective essays” were reflective essays and not “meet the rubric” essays, and you have what appears to be a out of control student with a disinterest in negotiations class.

In elementary school, my teachers pulled my parents aside and advised my parents to let me do whatever I wanted to do. I only found out about this last year. My mom quizzed me with math flash cards and I always got good marks in the deliverables but lacked the “neat, orderly, clean” soft skills that the girls always got but the semi-outspoken hard to control boys like me found out of reach.

In middle school, I digressed in my language abilities in 6th grade and took it upon myself to switch schools. Maybe my realization that my language assignments were solely graded on the neatness of my handwriting and not the content led to that. I’ll let you guess how I figured that one out. I spent 3 years in all boy classes taking my language skills to a level where at least I could be taken seriously.

But, I switched back in high school, 10th grade to focus on programming, robotics, and to surround myself with computers. I found myself getting sent to the vice principle’s office *kicked out of class* because I enjoyed handing in completed assignments before the teacher was done handing them out to the class. I took gym class as a 10th grader (a 9th grade class), and didn’t mind being perceived to be incapable of passing it the first time. I worked 10-20 hours a week as a soccer ref, or at the concession stand at SoccerZone on top of school. I volunteered to help repair electronic components of school corporations at the NIESC and I started taking college classes in such things as “Cisco Network Certification.” Everything I ever wrote for school apparently was par or below par, and I was always short of being able to write something worth reading in those days regardless of how hard I tried. Surpise, I got Journalist of the Year Senior Year for hand coding a student driven autonomously updating website thepennant.com which has since been overhauled and looks better and is less buggy. (But mine was cooler). So, I applied to a few colleges and chose Purdue Engineering since my parents went there and I was good at math (I ended up teaching myself 2nd year calculus my winter break senior year of high school so I could pass the AP exam).

I came to Purdue, was going to be in the CEM program – Construction Engineering Management, mostly because my friend did it. It ended up that GE offered me a job in Louisville as an Industrial Engineer (IE). Combined that with the fact that Professor Barany gave a lecture in ENGR 100 suggesting that if you wanted to learn how to make money, IE was the ticket. So, I’m a Co-Op student, working every other semester and I joined a fraternity, pledged over 60 weeks (the hard way), and everything made sense. The cool thing about engineering principles is that they make sense. Completely different from MBA school in some cases. Anyway, at this point, I decided that I wanted to figure out how to value businesses, especially since Barany again came to me and advised the 3+2 program for outstanding undergraduates, which apparently I was.

So, I go to MBA school, and everything goes mostly as expected until my 2nd semester, at which point in my first Finance class, I’m advised to believe that it makes sense due to the EMH that companies should target leverage ratios, and as such, when their stock price goes up, they should buy back their stock at these higher prices to target the leverage ratio. My grades start their decline. Anyway, at this point, I had begun paying my college education from stock market proceeds, with the initial generated capital coming from student loans, my savings from GE, Construction, SoccerZone, cutting grass, home repair, etc. It made more sense to me to learn from minds like Buffett rather than my professors in this case. I began questioning everything.

My first summer as an MBA, I applied for over 500 jobs, the market had crashed, nobody believed in me, but thank god my parents let me come home for the summer to wait out the storm. Suddenly, as I had predicted, people started to believe in me when everything I had said was going to happen started to happen.

Heading back for my 2nd year… It became impossible for me to retain information that I didn’t believe in. My grades are barely passing. Teachers pull me aside and ask me what I want out of my education. I don’t tell them that I’m taking what I can get, but doing my best to overlook that which isn’t important to me. I began putting stock tips at the end of my exams (to make up for the lack of gradable content — actually the teachers could have made hundreds of percentages 100%+ by following them). At this point I dropped the idea of having a focus for my MBA and looked through all the available classes and asked for all the syllabuses and signed up for the ones that seemed the least miserable. I avoided all classes from the finance side. The accounting ones were good. Several concerned faculty members talked to the Dean about me, who then sat me down and asked me about my life and how things are going and advised that I go partake in the free psychological counseling offered at Purdue. She apparently didn’t believe that things were going as well for me as I told her they were. I wouldn’t have believed me either. I realize that the things I’ve been up to sound too good to be true in some cases, and for that I apologize. I’ll try to do less next time and fall in line with expectations. Not. I almost went, until I realized that it wasn’t part of my life-strategy to waste my time and the time of others. I always set the bar so high that I can’t reach it. You’d be surprised how far you can reach if you set your limits high enough. But, be realistic and don’t hurt yourself by overextending. I tried to learn to present more effectively, but came across Dale Carnegie’s book after that class, where in one speech I discredited myself as a speaker by pointing out the flaws in the various education histories of my audience. My grades actually aren’t passing, but now I’m passing on attendance and credibility that I’ve built from being a “good student” in the past.

And so here I am, at the end of the chute. I can’t say that celebrating graduation feels right in this case, because it’s like running a marathon in a sideways direction, tripping over the finish line and disqualifying yourself because you ran it under an alias. But, somehow, right now, I think that I made it. Do I deserve it based on their metrics, heck no I don’t. I definately don’t. But do I deserve it on the principles that I mastered business? Heck yes. I definately do. I mastered business outside of school. School was always that thing that was holding me back from really unleashing my full untapped potential. And here I am now, still stuck, because in 2 weeks, I have to be back here, for my last real class if I am invited to take it — and this class is called graduation. And, if I do graduate on that day, I will finally feel free. I will be done. I will be graduated. I will not be held back.

1. What am I doing here? I’m leaving.
2. How is my time best spent? Somewhere else.
3. What am I waiting for? Nothing. Finally, I made it.

I want to close with outlining an idea that I used to agree with. Anyone familiar with Penelope Trunk’s perspective of an MBA being obsolete or maybe a “waste of time” might think that I whole-heartedly agree with her perspective.

http://blog.penelopetrunk.com/2007/10/04/yahoo-column-are-mbas-becoming-obsolete/

Here’s my take. Does an MBA add that much value to someone’s life? Sure. It buys you 2 years to sit around and think about businesses, how they work, how you could be part of one, and gives you a bunch of ideas and concepts (whether or not they are always right, you are given concepts and ideas) that you can use to apply using various techniques.

Even the people I found myself associating with that I considered to be inept are now better off than when they started, admittedly. Hey, they’re “worth more.” I think that at least they are more likely to ask the right questions, which would more likely lead to them finding the right answers in whatever business setting they are involved in. But sure, maybe 10% of the MBAs out there actually significantly benefit from going to MBA school. My significant benefit comes from the motivation that it’s given me and how it’s continued to build positive feedback loops within me when I reject what I consider to be “silly ideas” that other people broadly accept as truths. It’s driven me to go out and follow leaders, to seek truth, to read influential books and to try to understand incentive structures. The point is, I think that most of the additional value of being an MBA is due to preselection and the differentiating characteristics between the type of people that would think about applying for an MBA and the rest of society.

Sure, I was no Tucker Max. I didn’t party nearly as hard as I could have or have nearly as much social time as I would have liked to, even though freshman year I was voted most likely to fail out of my dorm and I got a 4.0. I was too busy laying a framework for my future. I made some serious personal sacrifices. Ideally, I’d be where I am today but have spent time in classes with better girl/guy ratios and softer disciplines (those classes that people call “easy A’s” never glossed my transcripts — and that’s my own fault). Note that my ratios started suffering in 6th grade and have persisted though completion. Programming, robotics, engineering, and business are just as biased to men as I am to owning undervalued companies, which is a huge bias.

There are a few pieces of advice I’d like to give Krannert, or any MBA school that will take it. But be warned. If you actually take this advice, you might find yourself being the #1 MBA school in the world. it comes with 3 points.

1. The difference between the best MBA schools and average MBA schools is leadership. In order to lead, you must inspire your students with the belief that they CAN do it if they set their minds to it. There was not enough of this “I can do it” attitude at Krannert.
2. Have a class structured on the book “How to win friends and influence people by dale carnegie”
3. I structured a class using similar concepts on glenbradford.com called Buffettology. Teach that.

Class Dismissed.

Zack Buckley wrote this on IHUB, I haven’t read it yet, but it looks useful.

I’ve been thinking about cash flow a lot recently. Here’s a very rudimentary look at the cash flow for alot of our favorites.

Key
? – I was lazy if google finance didn’t have it I didn’t write it down. I will finish the ?’s later
Y – op cash flows matched up with net income
Y great – op cash flows exceeded net income, usually substantialyl
Half – op cash flows were good some years/quarters and bad others in comparison to net income. Or might have been around half of net income
N – cash flows did not mark up closely with net income

I would also like to explore in some of the companies why the cash flows didn’t match up, and then figure out if it is a long term issue. I think that the quality of earnings has to be questioned when a company consistently is not generating cash flows and is piling up either inventory or a/r. It’s a great place to start in terms of looking for fraud/financial misrepresentation.

Skbi for instance has an issue with cash flow. I see that the main reason is that they have had some prepayments. I am relatively comfortable with this, as I see it as better than a rapidly growing inventory and a/r balance. While I am still not as happy as I would be if they were generating an equal or greater amount of cash in comparison to their net income.

Would love to hear others thoughts

Zack

ear cash flow?
djsp
csgh y
bfar y
skbi n
bspm half
chgy y
chbt y
lpih half
jada y
ccgy y
csgj y
puda half
cgdi y
sokf y great
cnam n
enhd half
ckgt y
sgzh y great
wkbt y
chme y
yong n
newn y
onp y
cclwf ?
ccme y
rhgp y
celm ?
chnc n
xnyh y
spu ?
chop ?
akrk n
tstc n
fuqi n
nep y
cgpi ?
sihi n
ghii half
chcg y great
siaf ?
ctxif ?
cyxn y
crui ?
cadc half
txic half
chio y
cpqq y
cnbi n
yhgg ?
hogs y
boy.v
cmfo half
yuii y
jgbo y
nfec n
tpi y
aln half
abc.v ?
cnoa half
cfsg half
chbu y
cga y
ltus y great
llen good 09
cpby n
csr half
cnyd ?
ors horrible
apwr half
liwa half
sclx y
cbpo y great

liz – no
tpi – pretty good, prolly a doubler i dont own.
caah – no profits
snbp – no
axti – no
NNA – no – but fernando says you wont lose money in the long haul, i tend to agree, but dont know (this applies to warrants)
CCKH – no
ccgy – buy this dip when the downward slope slows to a flat. 4/12/2010
boph – dont understand the shareholder structure
srre – nice last couple quarters, mostly due to increases in underwriting sales, which they call “this higher risk business model” also bad balance sheet — pass
aclo – low margins, strong turn around play, could be a tripler or more, but i dont like it positive vibe: “The Company predicts that the supply shortage will continue in 2010, while the average selling price and demand for memory components will be steady. The Company believes its sales turnover and gross profit margin will continue to increase in 2010 as the Company is expanding its business.”
aerlf – dont like the business model
chhe – be careful, auditing firm warns of fraud essentially… company claims to be moving around suitcases full of money
gntq – 1.1M shares + dilution (18.6+.6+2.7+1.7+1.7) = 26.4M shares o/s 11.8M net income, 35M revs, guidance of 15M, .62 per share for 2010 eps
gntq – analysis continued, last time they raised 7.7M, in 2006, in 2007 they made 4.8M, and in 2008 they made 11.8M (from what looks like no additional financing)
gntq – they just cut a dividend for 13.1M in sept 2009, draining the business of cash
gntq – projection time: so they’ll put down 11.8M in income this year just on what they have going, not including the 7.7M of cash they just got. so add 11.8+4.8, and that’s where they’re getting their 15M estimate for 2010
gntq – if they can keep that up, they’ll have 15M in cash going into 2011 and every dollar in cash turning into $0.80 in profits turns 27M in profits
gntq – around $1/share in 2011. the question is how long is this business this scalable?, they just ipoed at 2.7 with warrants, suggesting an opening p/e of 2.5-5, most of the company is still held by ceo (80%) – prolly looking to do another dilution at a higher price
lwll – too small
FLSW – revisited – way too small, unpredictable, feel free to correct me, looks cheap, hank play – this requires a second glance, definately
CRJI – revisited – nah – underperformer in this construction market/year .02 last quarter, could be cheap, worth another look
cckh – nah
sgla – nah – 104M common shares, 1.65M preferreds x 11.36 = 18.74M common + 38.7M outstanding warrants = 161M shares * .45 = 72M market cap = 3x book, .75x sales, P/E = 14.4
lndt – old rmsi – http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=47461301&txt2find=rmsi pricey
cfmi – illiquid – not stupid cheap

By Glen Bradford and Zack Buckley
With this last article of a wonderful series that would make anyone who has the ability to throw darts a great shot at not losing money as long as they are able to avoid panic selling at irrational lows, we think it would be fun to give some color as to what’s really going on in the market lately and what you should watch out for. Inflation isn’t going to go down. US housing prices aren’t going to go down. The recession ended around 9 months ago. The economy won’t double dip. The latest Goldman Sachs crisis will likely be forgotten when they crush on earnings. Banks won’t miss out on profits until yield curves start flattening. For some reason, the majority of the money flooding capital markets is going into bond markets. Buying treasuries shouldn’t be anyone’s long term strategy. All this and you can still get US listed Chinese equities at unreasonably discounted prices.
5th article
siaf “Chinese agricltulre is another thing I think is going to boom because it’s such a wreck.” ~Jim Rogers. We agree with Jim wholeheartedly, and SIAF is one of the companies taking advantage of the boom in agriculture in China.
China Linen Textile Industry Ltd. (OTC: CTXIF) produces over 50 types of linen yarn and 110 varieties of linen fabric and products. We would argue that it would produce holders of its common shares significant future profits if the holders choose to buy now at the current price. For a company that is arguably growing faster than 20%, the current pricing suggests no growth and the way to bet against the antagonists is to purchase. Go ahead, you can do it.
China Yongxin (cyxn) just recently released 2009 results of $.15/share, pretty cheap for a company trading around $.60. They are a pharmaceutical company who is expanding its retail drug stores; they expect to open 28 new stores in 2010. They also just recently appointed four independent board members, which suggest uplisting in their future.
China Rutai International Holdings (crui) develops cellulose ether and is trading at a p/e of less than 5.
China Advanced Construction Materials (cadc) produces concrete materials in China. They should be able to capitalize on the growth of the construction industry in China based on the recent infrastructure investments by the Chinese government based on the 4 trillion yuan stimulus package. Their expansion plans consists of adding portable stations in 2010 and 2011, acquiring smaller similar companies, and to add products to their mix.
Tongxin International (txic) is in the rapidly expanding auto industry, they build the body structure for commercial vehicles in China. They are trading at a p/e of 5 based on 2008 net income and growing rapidly.
China Insoline (chio) is one of the more speculative plays but will be heavily rewarding to investors if the company become successful. It is an online insurance provider who services the Beijing area. They have great profit margins and high returns on equity. My main issue is I have been unable to get in touch with them, despite trying several different phone numbers and emails.
China Power Equipment (Cpqq) is trading at a p/e of about 10, yet they are growing at breakneck rates – net income over the past year almost triped. They manufacture alloy transformer cores and alloy electricity transformers that are designed to step down voltage in power plants.
China Baicaotang Medicine (cnbi) is engaged in three segments in Guangxi province- pharmaceutical distribution, retail pharmacy and manufacture of pharmaceuticals. They are currently at a p/e of 6, despite solid growth.
Yasheng Group (yhgg) has had quite the month. It’s up almost 300% since they recently started filing with the SEC, which they have not done in about 3 years. Rumors are that they are planning on completing all of their late filings and plan on eventually listing on Nasdaq. If that occurs this 250 million dollar company could easily reach a billion. Again this is a more speculative company, investors should carefully weigh their decision to invest.
Disclosure: Glen Bradford is long all the companies mentioned in this article.

liz – no
tpi – pretty good, prolly a doubler i dont own.
caah – no profits
snbp – no
axti – no
NNA – no – but fernando says you wont lose money in the long haul, i tend to agree, but dont know (this applies to warrants)
CCKH – no
ccgy – buy this dip when the downward slope slows to a flat. 4/12/2010
boph – dont understand the shareholder structure
srre – nice last couple quarters, mostly due to increases in underwriting sales, which they call “this higher risk business model” also bad balance sheet — pass
aclo – low margins, strong turn around play, could be a tripler or more, but i dont like it positive vibe: “The Company predicts that the supply shortage will continue in 2010, while the average selling price and demand for memory components will be steady. The Company believes its sales turnover and gross profit margin will continue to increase in 2010 as the Company is expanding its business.”
aerlf – dont like the business model
chhe – be careful, auditing firm warns of fraud essentially… company claims to be moving around suitcases full of money
gntq – 1.1M shares + dilution (18.6+.6+2.7+1.7+1.7) = 26.4M shares o/s 11.8M net income, 35M revs, guidance of 15M, .62 per share for 2010 eps
gntq – analysis continued, last time they raised 7.7M, in 2006, in 2007 they made 4.8M, and in 2008 they made 11.8M (from what looks like no additional financing)
gntq – they just cut a dividend for 13.1M in sept 2009, draining the business of cash
gntq – projection time: so they’ll put down 11.8M in income this year just on what they have going, not including the 7.7M of cash they just got. so add 11.8+4.8, and that’s where they’re getting their 15M estimate for 2010
gntq – if they can keep that up, they’ll have 15M in cash going into 2011 and every dollar in cash turning into $0.80 in profits turns 27M in profits
gntq – around $1/share in 2011. the question is how long is this business this scalable?, they just ipoed at 2.7 with warrants, suggesting an opening p/e of 2.5-5, most of the company is still held by ceo (80%) – prolly looking to do another dilution at a higher price
lwll – too small
FLSW – hank play – this requires a second glance, definately
CRJI – underperformer in this construction market/year .02 last quarter, could be cheap, worth another look

We would like to make a distinction between these companies and previous companies because we are only long a few of the opportunities that we are now discussing. That being said, most of these are still very undervalued companies or we would not mention them. In general we believe the previously mentioned companies are better opportunities. But, we’d love to reserve the right to be wrong. We often are.
Skypeople Fruit Juice (spu) is a rapidly growing company with a p/e of 8. They just recently uplisted to Amex, but despite its recent climb it still appears undervalued. For growth, they are expanding their capacity from 30,000 to 60,000 tons in 2010, promoting their proprietary brand Hedetang, and expanding their product offerings.
China Gerui Advanced Materials (chop) – is the largest manufacturer of high precision cold-rolled strip steel products in China. They are a market leader, with a p/e of 7 and have been growing income rapidly. China’s steel industry is growing at a cagr of 18%, and is continued to grow as a result of huge government investments in infrastructure spending. To grow they plan on doubling capacity to 500,000 tons by 2011 and adding different metals to their product.
Asia Cork Inc. (akrk) is a leading producer of cork wood floor, wall and decorations. Their main competitive advantage is their raw material supply, they own a cork forest. In addition, they are currently trading at a p/e of 6.5. Their management team has so far been very shy about displaying the company, but if this changes in the future, the company will be rewarded by greater investor awareness through a higher stock price.
Telestone Technologies (tstc) is a wireless communications solutions provider. They are exploding with almost 100% revenue growth in 2009, and 2010 expected growth of close to 50%. This company is trading at a p/e of only 12.5. Actually, it’s currently around the low for the year. Tim Sykes suggested it as a potential short. If you have the ability to buy and hold until appreciation, this is one you’ll appreciate to have in your portfolio.
Fuqi International (fuqi) – Fuqi has been growing at a rapid pace and has an incredibly strong balance sheet with a cash balance of 173 million, with a market cap of only 330 million. With a p/e slightly above 5 and exploding earnings, this is an interesting opportunity. Some downsides are that Fuqi has recently had some controversy when they restated earnings. We would like to see the company generate cash, although they have blowout earnings, shareholders are yet to see positive cash flow.
China North East Petroleum (AMEX:nep) is engaged in the exploration and production of crude oil in Northern China. If you believe that China is hungry for energy and the next crisis could be related to the global oil production surplus going into a deficit, this is a practical way to capitalize. It’s hard to say, since we are waiting on a report that could send the share price skyrocketing. To do this, all they really need to do is offer non-GAAP guidance on a forward basis.
I’ve been following China Redstone Group (CGPI) since mid-February when I was forced to pass up a purchasing opportunity that has since returned over 100%. It launched under the ticker APBS and recently retickered. Fully diluted my share count is 13.4M and for FY2011 I’m looking at top line revenues of $36M and net income of $15.8M. Did you know that the Death Care industry has consistently ranked among the top 10 most profitable industries in China? You do now.
Sinohub (sihi) is involved in electronic sales, although it does not modify the products in any way. They provide packing, warehousing, logistics, and import/export services. They currently trade at a p/e of just over 6. They just released 2010 revenue guidance of 180 million, not bad for an expanding 85 million dollar company. Not bad at all.
Gold Horse (ghii) is a speculative play that will be very rewarding to shareholders if it is able to continue gaining construction contracts. They are a construction company in Hohhot, the capital of Inner Mongolia trading at 1/6 of book value and 4 times earnings. They have some recurring streams of revenue that should continue generating money for shareholders. Investors should be very careful, there was some question as to whether they would go bankrupt, but recently secured more construction contracts. We have tried endlessly to get in touch with the US based CFO Adam Wasserman, and unfortunately are still waiting for a response.
China 3c Group (chcg) is primarily an asset and turnaround play. They are currently trading below their cash balance and at a fraction of revenues and book value. If they were to liquidate tomorrow, the shareholders would all be sent a check in the mail. In order for shareholders to actually be rewarded, management must use its capital wisely. There are no guarantees that management will get the assets invested to generate more money or return those assets back to shareholders.

Following this is more unrelated tickers:
CNVP – nah
KRJI – not a ticker
KGJI – too expensive – really low margin business, haha. but 250M in revs, that’s big 83M shares @ 1.69 = 140M market cap. gross margins decreased from around 10% to 6% last year. too expensive
EDIT – is this a ticker? google says yes, otcmarkets.com says no
BEST – too small/expensive for me
CEO – lol no
CPDU – “net loss for the period” = no
JPAK – too expensive 56M shares at 80 cents = mkt cap of 45M, 60M revenues, 5M net income, too expensive a hank play – actually isn’t that bad.
FLSW – hank play – this requires a second glance, definately
RMSI – expensive looks explosive in terms of growth, 60M rev, 14M NI for 3q ttm normalized. $6.30, 27.3M shares, .41 NI per share pro forma, too expensive
CRJI – underperformer in this construction market/year .02 last quarter, could be cheap, worth another look
NNA – warrants NNA+ or NNA.WT http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=48887268&txt2find=nna
SHIP – supposed to compare to NMM – dont know much about either
CPDU – hank sold at 3.88 and 3

YONG – 44 mil of nongaap net income and 43 mil shares around eps of $1 non-gaap, growth 50%
CAEI – looks cheap based on the backlog last i looked… retarded. wonder how many shares are out there now.
AERLF AERCF – nah shares ballpark 43M – 14.6M @ $5 $73M, looks like a p/e of 30? $15M NI target
joez – no – had a huge write up $16M in q4 2009, that pulled eps up to $0.41 from $0.13. the current price is $3.34, putting eps at 25, expensive by my taste, but maybe there are future catalysts i’m missing.
SHIP – I’ve got questions that I’m afraid to ask.
gurc – looks expensive compared to CNAM unless there is a katalyst i missed going forward http://www.otcmarkets.com/edgar/GetFilingHtml?FilingID=7123586
AMCF – p/e of 10? nah
ZSTN – p/e of 13? nah
dion – way too small, but no clue. not buying
watg – looks pricey pe 15
yhgg – sure, lets see those filings. i might be guilty for the recent buying… oops
cpqq – apparently they are going from 1000 to 5000, my eps estimate is 0.44, any ideas? looking for feedback
eds – thanks for making me convert rmb to usd $1.59 EPS, $8.70 stock price 10% growth, prolly a doubler, http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/marketwire/0604834.htm
CNBI – $120M market cap, 20M net income, growth of 20%, probably a x3
EIGH – nah
BOPH – at $2.2 weird how they arent recieving proceeds from sale of stock.. why? why are they pinks?
CBEH – nah
cgpi – could have bought it for around $3, but no takers. would have been over 100% in a month. prolly a doubler or more from here

Glen-

Your 2010 Chinese Micro-cap stock picks currently ranks number one at PickScout.com. You have pretty much held the number one spot all year. PickScout began tracking your picks when TheStreet.com published your article online. Ironically, in another TheStreet.com article by Arne Alsin, holds the number two spot (as of April 5th). Together, you two currently hold the top two spots. A lot of time left in the trading year (PickScout ends tracking the “best of” picks on the last trading day of the year).

Your picks are beating out the likes of JP Morgan Chase, Raymond James, Bloomberg and a whole slew of other respected financial professionals. Congratulations!

PickScout tracks the performance of stock picks found in the media. We benchmark each stock to major market indexes and lead our visitors back to the original article so you see who is picking what, why they are picking it, and how they perform.

Here are the current 2010 results PickScout is currently tracking.

Good luck and happy trading in 2010!

————MEMBER OF PICKSCOUT SIGNS AND GIVES CONTACT INFORMATION —————–

China Medicine Corp (Chme) is trading at an adjusted p/e of 7. They recently took a big hit after the release of their 10-k, which allows investors to pick up shares of a great company on the cheap. China medicine generated 17 million in 2009, and is only a 65 million dollar company. China medicine is waiting on government approval of its proprietary drug rADTZ, which should substantially contribute to future revenue growth.
Yongye International (Yong) continues raising revenue guidance, and has issued the expectation of 50% compounded annual revenue growth over the next 3 years. Their recent count of branded stores is 10,000, with their goal at year end to be 20,000. There are discussions that by the end of the decade they may have 100,000 branded stores.
New Energy Systems Group (Newn) has been reaffirming guidance at between 5.3-6 million, since they have reaffirmed this number on three separate occasions, we can assume it will be close to accurate. The company projects 2010 EPS of 1.23, which makes a low p/e of only 6.1 times earnings, even though this incorporates a tripling of net income. With return on equity of 60% and profit margins at 26%, this company has high returns on capital and strong margins. Average return on equity in American business is 12%, anything above 20% is spectacular.
Orient paper Onp – This is a rapidly growing company with a low p/e in a great industry. They make paper; it is very simple and understandable which we love. They achieve a return on equity of 22% with a p/e of 8. They expect EPS of adjusted net income of 1.21, which is about 16% growth for 2010.
China Ceramics Co (CCLTF) is one of those companies that makes you proud. Take a look at their super 8-K issued last November and if you’re perceptive, you’ll realize how truly innovative their structuring is. I firmly believe that more companies should go public in this manner. Basically, if the company performs, they get over $100M through their warrants being cashed in. Their warrants trade as CCLWF. Yesterday, they reported results from the last year and beat my expectations. Again, I wish more companies went public this way. When you’re running at full capacity with a backlog, getting $100M to expand is always worthwhile.
ccme – Has issued incredible revenue guidance of 80% growth for 2010, which does not even include the expansion of their bus lines, which will surely occur. With a p/e of just under 7, this companies valuation does not make any sense, considering they just uplisted to AMEX. The markets will eventually realize their mistakes, and investors will be strongly rewarded.
rhgp – This company is very exciting as they are planning on uplisting directly from the pink sheets to amex. They are distributors for traditional Chinese medicines that are trading at a very low multiple. With a trailing p/e of about 6, and revenue net income growth in the range of 25%, this company is very cheap.
China Electric motor (Celm) makes micro motors that serve the consumer electronics, automobile, power tools, and household appliance industries in China. It is trading at a forward p/e of around 4 based on management’s 2010 guidance. In addition CELM is expecting to grow at over 50% in 2010. CELM had 2009 return on equity of 40%, and is servicing an extremely quickly growing market. Auto sales in China are exploding as China just recently surpassed the U.S. as the largest car market in the world.
China Infrastructure Construction Corp (OTC: CHNC) appointed a new independent member in February and in March made public their quest to raise cash in the public markets. Looking to uplist to the Nasdaq and being as cheap as they are while still being over $5 suggests that someone knows what they’re doing over here. Mutual funds almost are going to be required to eat this up sometime in the near future.
Xinyinhai (xnyh) is our speculative play for this article. This small company is trading at a p/e of 4 based on 2009 net income and 1.5 based on 2008 income. The economic recession hurt their business line in 2009, but Xinyinhai believes their business will return to its former profitability. If this business is able to fully execute a turnaround, it will be trading at ridiculously cheap price. There is risk with this company as they may not be able to recover.

Heck, a lot of people are starting to post stuff a lot like I would. This is great! Saves me a lot of time. I used to have to go out and find all my ideas by sorting through thousands of pink sheeters and OTC companies. having a central access point of likeminded investors stating their opinion on stuff that i already like is doing what I thought it would. I figured a year ago, we would go through waves of new investors coming to this sector and we are and have. We are starting to garner large institutional attention, but we still aren’t even close to where things will start turning south. Lots of getting something for nothing. Hop in, but only if you know what you’re doing. If you don’t you’re bound to get taken for stuff. I do my best not to discuss bad opportunities for any duration… they just aren’t worth my time or yours. Note that my priority goes to my investors first. Thus, I don’t always cover the best opportunities anymore as I find them… as I’m usually buying them.

CCME – what else is there left to be said about this one
CNYD – “synergy”
LPIH – imminent uplisting
LTUS – 2 times cash, much more growth to come
CKGT – 2010 PE 4ish, cigs could be big
CHBT – mountain of cash, huge growth coming
SOKF – wonderful business
BFAR – 2010 PE 2, solid growth
ENHD – 2010 PE<3, more profitable than HOGS, nice cash flow
CHNC - 2010 PE 3, just tripled capacity, historic 30% growth rate

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=48558972

CCLWF – leverage, leverage, leverage; good business with a warrant that doesn’t expire until 11/12 but will provide a 400% return if the share price appreciates a bit over 50%, for nearly 8x leverage.
CCME – nothing to add, love the moat and cash to expand; already uplisted, so sooner to get noticed
NEP – great cash flow and customer relationships; one of the safest plays with still good upside potential. Should be a $15-$20 IMO at minimum. Already uplisted.
CHOP – great leverage again through warrants; already uplisted; once it gets past warrant overhang, should take off
SOKF – hard to find anything wrong with them; good growth, good valuation, excellent cash flow
CNYD – good moat, cash flow, growth plans
LIWA – Strong business & growth plans; good valuation; ok cash flow
CKGT – Steady, unlikely to dissappoint
BSPM – Looking for continued expansion, would like to see another drug of significance added to network.
CSGH – Speculative play and potential homerun, but good valuation without the homerun, so should be limited downside. Overall, I usually avoid technology plays because of rate of change, but intrigued by this one.

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=48563487

I’ve done some musings lately.

http://www.glenbradford.com/files/Stocks/Best%20investors.pdf

http://www.glenbradford.com/files/Stocks/fooled%20by%20randomness%20notes.pdf